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THE WAR NOBODY COVERED LAST WEEK
While the world watched Beijing, another war kept going. It is in its fifth year. It has no active American peace process. It has no diplomatic bandwidth from Washington. And last week, it produced some of the most intense exchanges of the entire conflict, largely unnoticed.
Between May 4 and 8, Russia conducted the deadliest wave of civilian strikes in 2026, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. At least 73 civilians were killed and more than 400 injured in strikes that targeted first responders, energy workers, and civilian infrastructure in eastern Ukraine, timed, as ACLED noted, to the period immediately preceding a ceasefire, continuing a documented Russian pattern of intensifying civilian targeting around negotiated pauses to exert maximum psychological pressure. Cities hit included Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk, Dnipro, Merefa, and Sumy. A kindergarten in Sumy was struck by two drones. Two people died.
Trump brokered a three-day Victory Day ceasefire for May 9-11. It collapsed in the same way every previous truce has collapsed: both sides accused each other of violations, neither withdrew from the front line, and the fighting resumed as soon as the announced period expired. Ukraine’s General Staff logged hundreds of Russian violations before the truce had run its first day. Russia accused Ukraine of the same. The Kremlin said it would not extend the ceasefire unless Zelenskyy accepted Moscow’s territorial demands. He did not.
On Sunday May 17, the same day a drone struck the UAE’s nuclear power plant and Trump posted about Iran from Truth Social, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow in over a year. More than 500 drones targeted the Russian capital and surrounding region, according to NBC News and Reuters. Four people were killed, including three in the Moscow region. Russia’s defense ministry said it downed more than 1,000 Ukrainian drones across the country over 24 hours. Drone debris fell on the grounds of Sheremetyevo Airport, Russia’s busiest air hub. Ukraine’s Security Service confirmed the operation targeted the Angstrem semiconductor plant, the Moscow Oil Refinery, two fuel pumping stations, and air defense systems in occupied Crimea. Zelenskyy called it “a completely fair response,” a direct reply to Russia’s killing of 52 Ukrainians the same week.
The broader strategic picture is shifting. April 2026 saw at least 21 Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, the highest monthly total since December, cutting Russia’s crude processing rate to its lowest level in over 16 years, according to Bloomberg data cited by Russia Matters. Ukraine’s long-range drone capability, reaching targets more than 500 kilometers from its border, is degrading Russian energy and military-industrial infrastructure in ways that were not possible two years ago. For the first time since 2022, polling inside Russia shows citizens worry more about strikes at home than about the front line, a significant psychological shift in a country whose government has maintained that the war’s consequences are largely invisible to ordinary Russians.
The Moscow Times noted that US peace talks “have noticeably stalled since Washington’s attention turned to the US-Israeli war on Iran in late February.” That sentence has been true for eleven weeks. It remains true this morning.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: The war in Ukraine did not pause for the Beijing summit. It did not pause for the BRICS meeting, the Lebanon talks, or the Cooper testimony. Russia killed 52 Ukrainians last week and struck a kindergarten with drones. Ukraine responded by sending 500 drones to Moscow. The US peace process that appeared to be building momentum earlier this year has stalled completely, its diplomatic bandwidth consumed by a different war. The front line stretches 1,200 kilometers. The fifth year looks like the fourth.
Sources: ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project — May 4-8 civilian toll, ceasefire targeting pattern, confirmed this session); NBC News / Reuters (wire — May 17 Moscow attack, 500+ drones, four killed, Sheremetyevo debris, confirmed this session); Kyiv Independent — Victory Day ceasefire (Ukraine — ceasefire announcement, collapse, confirmed this session); Kyiv Independent — Russian polling (Ukraine — Kremlin-linked Public Opinion Foundation poll, 18% vs 16% home strikes vs frontline, confirmed this session); Russia Matters / Bloomberg (Harvard Belfer Center — April refinery strikes, crude processing rate, confirmed this session); The Moscow Times (Russia, editorially independent — US peace process stalled quote, confirmed this session)
A DRONE STRUCK THE ARAB WORLD’S ONLY NUCLEAR PLANT
On Sunday, a drone hit the perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in Abu Dhabi, the first and only commercial nuclear power plant in the Arab world, the first time it has been targeted in the Iran war, and the sharpest single signal yet that the fragile ceasefire is coming apart.
The strike set fire to an electrical generator outside the plant’s inner perimeter. No injuries were reported. No radiological release occurred. UAE regulators said all four reactors were operating normally, though one was temporarily powered by emergency diesel generators. The UAE did not blame any party. No group claimed responsibility. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, said it was monitoring the situation with “grave concern” and that its director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi spoke directly with the UAE’s foreign minister. Qatar and Saudi Arabia condemned the attack as a threat to regional security and stability.
The $20 billion Barakah plant was built with South Korean assistance, went online in 2020, and can provide a quarter of the UAE’s total energy needs. It operates under a strict US “123 agreement” in which the UAE committed to forgo domestic uranium enrichment. The uranium comes from abroad. It is not a weapons program. It is civilian infrastructure, the kind of target that, if struck with more precision or greater force, would trigger consequences extending far beyond any bilateral dispute.
The attack did not occur in isolation. On Iranian state television Sunday, presenters on at least two channels appeared armed during live broadcasts. One host, Hossein Hosseini, received live firearms training from a masked IRGC member and mimed firing at a UAE flag. On another channel, presenter Mobina Nasiri said a weapon had been sent to her from a Tehran rally and declared herself “ready to sacrifice my life for this country.” Meanwhile, two people familiar with the situation, including an Israeli military officer, told the Associated Press that Israel is coordinating with the US about a possible resumption of attacks on Iran. Netanyahu told his cabinet Sunday that “our eyes are also open” regarding Iran, and that “we are prepared for any scenario.” Trump posted on Truth Social: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.” Iran’s military spokesman responded that if Trump’s threats were carried out, the US would “face new, aggressive, and surprise scenarios.”
The Houthis, the Yemen-based Iranian-backed group the UAE has battled as part of a Saudi-led coalition, claimed responsibility for the Barakah strike. That claim is unverified and consistent with Houthi practice of claiming attacks regardless of whether they executed them. What is verifiable: the attack happened, the IAEA is alarmed, Iran’s state television is putting guns on air, Netanyahu says every option is open, and Trump says the clock is ticking. The ceasefire is 40 days old. It has never really held.
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Al Jazeera framed the Barakah strike as raising “new concerns over a potential new regional escalation amid a fragile ceasefire.” That framing, “new concerns over potential escalation,” is the language of careful journalism applied to a situation that is already escalating. The international nuclear community’s response was not “new concerns.” The IAEA director-general expressed “grave concern” and personally called the UAE’s foreign minister. Civilian nuclear infrastructure has increasingly been targeted in wars — at Zaporizhzhia throughout the Ukraine conflict, at Iran’s Bushehr plant during this war. Each precedent makes the next one easier to commit. The Barakah strike is the first commercial nuclear plant strike on Arab soil. That distinction will not be unmade.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: A nuclear power plant was struck by a drone on Sunday. The IAEA expressed grave concern. Israel says it is coordinating with the US on possible resumed attacks. Trump says Iran’s clock is ticking. Iranian state television hosts are practicing with guns on live TV. The ceasefire that has theoretically been in effect since April 8 is being held together by the absence of a formal declaration that it is over, not by the absence of violence. Brent crude is at $110.10 this morning.
Sources: ABC News / AP (wire — strike confirmed, no injuries, Israeli coordination with US, Netanyahu cabinet remarks, Houthi claim, confirmed this session); PBS NewsHour / AP (wire — IAEA grave concern, Grossi UAE FM call, emergency diesel generators, Iranian state TV arms broadcasts, confirmed this session); Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — Qatar/Saudi condemnation, ceasefire framing, confirmed this session); Washington Post / AP (wire — Trump Truth Social quote, Iran military spokesman response, confirmed this session)
FRANCE IS DOING THE WORK. AMERICA IS NOT.
On Sunday, Paris Public Prosecutor Laure Beccuau announced that approximately 10 new suspected victims of Jeffrey Epstein’s network have come forward in France, people she said “we didn’t know at all.” France has pulled out Epstein’s computers, his telephone records, and his address books. It is making formal requests for international judicial assistance. It has opened two parallel lines of inquiry: one into human trafficking, one into financial crimes. It has listened to approximately 20 suspected victims since Beccuau urged them to come forward in February. It is, in other words, conducting an investigation.
The United States, which holds 3.5 million pages of Epstein documents, has made no new arrests. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said in March that there was “no new evidence” to be used in prosecutions and that no further charges were expected. The DOJ/FBI memo concluded there was no evidence of an “incriminating client list” and no basis for additional prosecutions. Roughly 2 million pages of documents remain withheld. Attorney General Pam Bondi, who previously refused to testify before the House Oversight Committee, agreed on April 29 to appear, with testimony scheduled for May 29. Democratic lawmakers accused the department of violating the Epstein Files Transparency Act by withholding FBI victim interview statements, a draft indictment, and prosecution memoranda from the 2007 Florida investigation.
The gap is not limited to France. At least nine investigations have opened in eight countries and within the EU’s anti-fraud unit following the files’ release. The UK arrested former Prince Andrew and former British ambassador Peter Mandelson on suspicion of misconduct in public office. Norway charged its former prime minister with aggravated corruption. Turkey, Lithuania, and the EU launched probes. All of this from documents the US government held for years before releasing half of them.
France’s announcement comes alongside a formal statement issued in February by independent human rights experts serving under UN Human Rights Council mandates. The alleged conduct documented in the Epstein files, they said, “may reasonably meet the legal threshold of crimes against humanity.” The specific acts named: sexual slavery, reproductive violence, enforced disappearance, torture, and femicide. These are not advocacy organization characterizations. They are the assessments of independent experts operating under formal UN mandates, using the legal vocabulary of international criminal law.
Former federal prosecutor Mimi Rocah put it plainly: “Right now, the government in charge has no interest in pursuing this, whereas the governments in other countries, or the authorities in other countries, for whatever reasons, do.” Investigative journalist Vicky Ward, one of the first reporters to investigate Epstein’s world, whose most disturbing findings were killed by her editor before publication, offered the bluntest assessment of the transatlantic contrast: “Good for the Brits for having a legitimate culture of shame and accountability.”
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: The international coverage of the Epstein files has produced a consistent and remarkable pattern: the countries that received the documents as a byproduct of an American investigation are pursuing accountability more aggressively than the country that conducted the investigation and holds the most evidence. France is interviewing new victims. Norway charged a former prime minister. The UK arrested a prince. The UN’s independent human rights experts are using “crimes against humanity” language. Washington is withholding documents and scheduling a testimony date. That pattern, international accountability proceeding while American accountability stalls, is not a footnote to the Epstein story. It is the Epstein story.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: France announced 10 new Epstein victims this weekend, people investigators had never previously identified. Independent UN human rights experts formally said the files may document crimes against humanity. The US has made no new arrests since releasing 3.5 million pages of documents. The Deputy Attorney General said no further prosecutions are expected. Two million pages remain withheld. The Attorney General agreed, after initially refusing, to testify before Congress on May 29. The investigation that produced the documents is moving faster everywhere except where it started.
Sources: Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — Beccuau Sunday announcement, 10 new victims, computers/phone records, confirmed this session); NBC News (US — nine overseas investigations, Rocah quote, Bondi case open, confirmed this session); NPR (US — no US arrests confirmed, Blanche no further prosecutions, Vicky Ward quote, confirmed this session); UN News (UN Human Rights Council independent experts — crimes against humanity language, sexual slavery/femicide classification, confirmed this session); Wikipedia / Epstein files (secondary, corroborated by DOJ primary and NBC/NPR — Bondi testimony date, withheld documents, Democratic contempt threat, confirmed this session)
ALSO DEVELOPING — for the curious:
Israel’s coalition: Netanyahu’s coalition filed a Knesset dissolution bill last week after ultra-Orthodox parties threatened to bring down the government over a military service exemption dispute. The bill requires four plenum votes. No new developments overnight. Elections remain possible as early as September. The prime minister conducting a multi-front war may soon be conducting a re-election campaign simultaneously.
NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,636+ killed (HRANA floor estimate — FROZEN since April 7; no updated HRANA report this session; Iranian Health Ministry figure as of May 5: 3,468 — methodology differs)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 2,896 killed, 8,824 wounded, 1.6 million displaced (Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, as of May 14)
🇮🇶 Iraq: At least 118 killed (Iraqi health authorities — mostly PMF members)
🇮🇱 Israel: At least 19 soldiers killed in Lebanon, 26 killed across all fronts (Al Jazeera tracker, as of May 5)
🌍 Gulf states: At least 28 killed (Al Jazeera live tracker — figure stable, no update this session)
🇺🇸 US military: 15 KIA confirmed (IranWarLive tracker, as of May 12)
🛢️ Brent crude: $110.10/barrel (OilPrice.com, Monday morning, editor-confirmed)
⛽ US gas: $4.52/gallon national average (AAA, editor-confirmed)
Sourcing note: Iran casualties sourced to HRANA (US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency), a floor estimate. Iranian Health Ministry figure cited separately. Methodology differs; figures should not be treated as directly comparable. US military KIA updated from 14 to 15 per IranWarLive tracker as of May 12.
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789
