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THE CLOCK
The MOU is twenty days old. Tonight it may not survive the night.
Iran struck three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz between Monday and Tuesday — the Al Rekayyat, a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker that caught fire; the Wedyan, a Saudi crude tanker; and a third oil tanker that sustained structural damage. No casualties were reported in any of the three attacks. Iran did not officially claim them. Iranian state media said the Qatari tanker had ignored repeated warnings and was using a route Tehran had not authorized.
Trump had warned Monday at the White House, “Make a deal, or we’re going to finish the job.” He also said the United States had given Iran “a week off” during Khamenei’s funeral. That week ended.
By Tuesday afternoon, the United States had revoked GL X, the general license that authorized the sale of Iranian oil, a concession granted at the MOU’s signing and the primary economic benefit Iran received from the agreement. A US official said Iran’s actions in the Strait were “wholly unacceptable” and that “Iran will only reap benefits if they exhibit good behavior.”
By Tuesday evening, CENTCOM was striking Iran. “U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway,” CENTCOM posted to X. A US official told CNN the strikes were “not proportional.” “This is punishment,” the official said. “It won’t be over for a bit.” CNN confirmed explosions in the port cities of Bandar Abbas and Sirik and on Qeshm Island, the same targets hit in the late June strikes.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the sanctions revocation as a “clear violation” of the MOU and said Washington bore full responsibility for the consequences. “Iran will take any measures it finds necessary to defend its national security,” the ministry said. Iran’s top diplomat added that Tehran would not resume negotiations if US threats continued.
Qatar summoned Iran’s deputy ambassador and handed over a diplomatic note demanding an explanation for the attack on the Al Rekayyat. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said it held Iran “fully legally responsible” and called the attack “a grave violation of the safety of international navigation.” Saudi Arabia condemned Iran’s strike on the Wedyan.
The MOU called for three things: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, an end to military operations, and a 60-day negotiating window to reach a permanent agreement. As of Tuesday evening, military operations have resumed on both sides and ships transiting the Strait are under attack. The US says Iran violated the MOU first. Iran says the US violated it first through Israeli strikes on Lebanon, which Iran considers covered by the agreement. Both sides are now striking and sanctioning each other simultaneously while claiming the other broke the deal.
Day 20 of 60. Forty days remain on the clock — if the clock is still running.
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Al Jazeera’s piece on the Hormuz attacks framed them not as an isolated escalation but as the consequence of a structural disagreement that was never resolved in the MOU text: Iran believes it controls which routes ships use through the Strait; the US and Gulf states believe the Strait is an international waterway with no toll or route requirement. The MOU left that question deliberately vague. The attacks on Monday and Tuesday are Iran enforcing its interpretation. The US strikes are the American enforcement of the opposite interpretation. Qatar and Saudi Arabia — both of which have strong relations with Washington and both of which were targeted by Iran — issued formal condemnations within hours. The Times of Israel liveblog captured Qatar summoning Iran’s deputy ambassador and Saudi Arabia condemning the strike on its vessel. The rest of the world is watching a ceasefire collapse during a funeral and a NATO summit simultaneously.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Iran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US revoked Iran’s right to sell oil and launched strikes described by a US official as “punishment” that “won’t be over for a bit.” Iran says it won’t negotiate while US threats continue. Brent crude spiked to $74.16. Day 20 of 60 — if the MOU survives the night.
Sources: CENTCOM / CBS News (US — CENTCOM “powerful strikes” statement verbatim confirmed, “not proportional” confirmed, three ships struck confirmed, GL X revoked confirmed, US official “wholly unacceptable” confirmed, July 7); CNN live blog (US — “This is punishment. It won’t be over for a bit.” confirmed, Bandar Abbas/Sirik/Qeshm Island explosions confirmed, Iran FM “any measures” confirmed, Iran no negotiations if threats continue confirmed, July 7); NBC News / AP (US wire — Al Rekayyat fire confirmed, Wedyan damage confirmed, third tanker confirmed, no casualties confirmed, Iranian state TV “ignored warnings” confirmed, June previous exchange confirmed, July 7); Times of Israel liveblog (Israel — Qatar summoned Iran deputy ambassador confirmed, Qatar “fully legally responsible” confirmed, Saudi condemnation confirmed, Iran FM MOU violation statement confirmed, July 7); CNBC (US — CENTCOM X post verbatim confirmed, oil futures spiked confirmed, Brent rise confirmed, Trump “finish the job” quote confirmed, July 7); NPR / AP (US wire — Trump “week off” quote confirmed, IMO “most attacks in a single day since late April” confirmed, Qatar Majed Al-Ansari statement confirmed, MOU 60-day context confirmed, July 7); Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — route dispute as structural MOU flaw confirmed, Iranian route enforcement framing confirmed, what it means for talks confirmed, July 7)
LE PEN
A Paris appeals court ruled Tuesday that Marine Le Pen is guilty of embezzlement — and that she can run for president anyway.
The court reduced her original five-year ban on holding elected office to 45 months, two-thirds of which are suspended. The remaining portion must be served under electronic monitoring — a bracelet. Le Pen has already served 15 months since her March 2025 conviction. She is eligible for the 2027 race, subject to the bracelet condition.
Reuters correspondent Michel Rose wrote, “The verdict is in: guilty, but eligible. The call is now hers, not theirs.”
Tuesday night, she made the call. Le Pen announced she will run for the French presidency in 2027. She reversed her previous position that electronic monitoring would make campaigning impossible. The bracelet will be on her wrist. She will campaign anyway.
The background: Le Pen and other RN members were convicted of embezzling European Parliament funds — using money intended for parliamentary assistants to instead pay party staff in France. The total embezzled by the RN over a decade: €4.1 million. Socialist politician Boris Vallaud called Le Pen “a convicted delinquent.” President Macron, visiting Syria, declined to comment, citing protocol.
The numbers: Le Pen polls at 32% in the first round. Jordan Bardella, the RN’s 30-year-old president and the man who would have run if she stepped aside, polls between 35% and 37%. The first round is April 2027.
A convicted embezzler will run for the French presidency in 2027 while wearing an electronic monitoring bracelet. She is currently the second most popular presidential candidate in France.
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: France 24’s live coverage framed the verdict not as a legal resolution but as a moral question about French democracy. One French politician, quoted in France 24, said that “the very fact that it even crosses our minds that Marine Le Pen might campaign whilst wearing an electronic tag is a sign that corruption is accepted in our country.” Euronews noted that even Le Pen’s most optimistic supporters had considered acquittal highly unlikely, making her decision to run a calculation that her support base will follow her regardless of the conviction. That calculation may be correct: she is polling at 32% with a conviction, a reduced ban, and a bracelet.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: The leader of France’s most popular party was found guilty of embezzling €4.1 million in public funds and will run for president while wearing an electronic monitoring bracelet. France votes in April 2027. She is currently polling at 32%.
Sources: AP / US News (US wire — guilty confirmed, 45 months reduced ban confirmed, two-thirds suspended confirmed, electronic bracelet condition confirmed, July 7); CNN (US — RN headquarters meeting confirmed, Le Pen bracelet quote confirmed, Le Pen confirmed running tonight confirmed, July 7); France 24 live blog (France, public broadcaster — Macron Syria decline confirmed, Vallaud “convicted delinquent” confirmed, corruption normalized framing confirmed, “partially satisfied” RN lawyer confirmed, July 7); Euronews (Europe — Bardella 35-37% polling confirmed, Le Pen 32% confirmed, acquittal “highly unlikely” confirmed, July 7); Reuters / Michel Rose via France 24 (wire — “guilty but eligible” Rose quote confirmed, July 7)
ANKARA
The NATO summit opened Tuesday in Ankara. Thirty-two heads of state are there, along with Volodymyr Zelensky and South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung. It is the first time a US president has visited Ankara in 17 years.
Trump arrived, was greeted warmly by Erdogan, and attended the NATO leaders’ dinner Tuesday evening. Speaking alongside Erdogan at the Presidential Complex, Trump said he had spoken with both Putin and Zelensky and that he believed both wanted a deal. “I think they both want to make a deal. It’s too bad it took so long, but I think there’s going to be — something’s going to come out,” he said. “They both wanna get it settled now. I think we’re going to get it settled. Hopefully soon.”
Zelensky, also in Ankara, used his time at the summit to make a specific public request: anti-ballistic missile systems. “The one thing we still need to do here in Europe is build a strong defense against Russia’s ballistic missiles,” he said. “It’s a big challenge; this is Russia’s last major advantage.” His bilateral meeting with Trump is Wednesday. He is expected to request Patriot interceptor systems directly.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced defense deals worth billions at the summit’s defense industry forum — including five high-altitude long-endurance drones from Northrop Grumman and $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities to be built over the next five years. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told CNBC, “The target is that Europe takes over the conventional defense of the European continent. We’re not going away, we’re just doing less.”
The draft Ankara Declaration, obtained by Reuters and confirmed by Ukrainska Pravda, commits European allies and Canada to €70 billion per year in military support for Ukraine in 2026 and 2027 — €140 billion over two years. It defines Russia as a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security and reaffirms Article 5. The text was still being finalized Tuesday, with Italy reportedly blocking some Ukraine commitments. The declaration has not yet been signed.
On the protocol question: Turkish press noted that visiting heads of state were not taken to Atatürk’s mausoleum, a diplomatic gesture customarily extended to visiting leaders in Ankara. The omission was noted by multiple Turkish outlets. Whether it reflected a specific decision by any individual leader or a broader logistical arrangement for the summit has not been confirmed from a wire service source. Only NATO ambassadors and senior NATO Secretariat officials visited the mausoleum. Turkish daily Sözcü reported the absence, and Reuters correspondent Hümeyra Pamuk noted on July 6 that Trump’s schedule “makes no mention of a visit to Anıtkabir.”
The summit continues Wednesday. The Ankara Declaration is expected to be finalized and signed. Trump meets Zelensky and Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa in bilaterals, then holds a press conference before departing for Washington.
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Al Jazeera framed Day 1 around a single detail that landed differently outside Washington than inside it: Trump said he might not have attended the summit if it wasn’t hosted by Erdogan. That admission — that personal loyalty to one leader was the condition for showing up to a collective defense alliance — is the frame European press applied to everything else that happened Tuesday. RFE/RL reported that the Pentagon’s ongoing force posture review may reduce US troop levels in Europe, and quoted a senior US official saying the review “very well may lead to us adjusting our posture because we’re trying to shift burden to Europe.” Ukrainska Pravda confirmed Italy as the holdout on Ukraine commitments — a detail largely absent from Western coverage presenting the declaration as unified. Brookings Institution analyst Michael O’Hanlon told CNBC, “I do not think there’s any great evidence that Putin is closer to doing a deal.”
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: NATO is meeting in Ankara. Trump says Putin and Zelensky both want a deal. Zelensky says Russia’s ballistic missiles are its last major advantage and he needs interceptors to stop them. He asks Trump for those interceptors tomorrow. The declaration commits €140 billion to Ukraine over two years, but it hasn’t been signed yet. The summit ends Wednesday.
Sources: CNN live blog (US — Trump “both wanna get it settled” quote confirmed, Zelensky ballistic missile quote confirmed, NATO drone deals confirmed, Northrop Grumman five drones confirmed, $40 billion counter-drone confirmed, Rutte “billions” confirmed, Trump-Erdogan dinner confirmed, July 7); CNBC (US — Whitaker “Europe takes over conventional defense” quote confirmed, O’Hanlon “no great evidence Putin closer” confirmed, Trump-Zelensky Wednesday bilateral confirmed, Trump-al-Sharaa confirmed, July 7); Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — Trump “wouldn’t have gone for most people” quote confirmed, Watling RUSI interceptor quote confirmed, Gulf countries attending confirmed, July 7); RFE/RL (US — force posture review “may lead to adjusting posture” confirmed, “shift burden to Europe” confirmed, Spain/France/Italy airspace restriction confirmed, July 7); Ukrainska Pravda (Ukraine — €70 billion per year confirmed, €140 billion total confirmed, Italy blocking confirmed, declaration still being finalized confirmed, July 3); Reuters / Hümeyra Pamuk via Medyascope (wire — Trump schedule no mention of Atatürk mausoleum confirmed, July 6); Sözcü (Turkey — only ambassadors/NATO officials visited mausoleum confirmed, heads of state not taken confirmed, Saudi Arabia and Iran precedent confirmed, July 6)
WAR DAY 130 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,468 killed, 26,500+ injured (Iran Ministry of Health, via Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10 — tracker may not yet reflect today’s strikes)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 4,230 killed, 12,179 injured (Lebanon Ministry of Public Health, updated June 25)
🇮🇱 Israel: 35+ killed (Israeli news source via Time, June 21 — tracker frozen June 10)
🌍 Gulf states/Iraq: 131 killed — Iraq 118, Kuwait 7, Bahrain 3, Oman 3 (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🇺🇸 US military: 13 killed, 381 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🛢️ Brent crude: $74.16/barrel (OilPrice.com — up sharply; Hormuz attacks and US sanctions revocation driving prices higher)
⛽ US national gas average: $3.79/gallon (AAA)
Sourcing note: All war casualty figures sourced to the Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10, 2026, except Lebanon. Lebanon updated to 4,230 killed, 12,179 injured per Lebanon Ministry of Public Health, confirmed June 25. All figures are floor estimates. Tonight’s US strikes on Iran are not yet reflected in any tracker. Methodology differs between sources; figures are not directly comparable.
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789
