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“OMAN WILL BEHAVE, OR WE’LL HAVE TO BLOW THEM UP”
At a White House Cabinet meeting Wednesday, a reporter asked President Trump whether he would accept a deal that allowed Iran and Oman to jointly charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The question was not hypothetical. Iran and Oman actually charged tolls during the April ceasefire, collecting around $2 million per vessel, with Iran directing the funds toward reconstruction. The arrangement is also a formal element of Iran’s own peace framework: Iran’s 10-point proposal for ending the war includes a provision allowing it and Oman to jointly charge ships transiting the strait. Iran has since created a “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to govern the waterway permanently and published a map defining its “management supervision area.” Rubio had already said the arrangement was “unacceptable” and would make a diplomatic deal “unfeasible.” Trump went further: “Nobody is going to control it. It’s international waters, and Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we will have to blow them up. They understand that. They’ll be fine.”
Oman is a US ally. It hosts American military facilities. It has been the quiet diplomatic engine of the Iran negotiations since before the war began, hosting the first back-channel talks between Washington and Tehran in February, facilitating communications throughout the ceasefire, and serving as the neutral ground that kept both sides at the table. Trump threatened to bomb it at a Cabinet meeting.
The threat came on the same day Iranian state television released what it claimed was the text of a final MoU, stating that US military forces would withdraw from the vicinity of Iran and lift the naval blockade in exchange for Iran restoring commercial transit through the strait to pre-war levels within one month. The White House called it “a complete fabrication”, stating that nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out. That same day, Trump told reporters he would not rush the deal because “I don’t care about the midterms.” Diplomats familiar with the negotiations told CNN they still do not know when or where the MoU will be signed.
The Oman threat cuts directly into the architecture of the talks. Oman sits on the southern shore of the Strait of Hormuz. Any arrangement for reopening the waterway requires Oman’s cooperation. Its Sultan Haitham has maintained careful neutrality since the war began, refusing to take sides while quietly keeping diplomatic lines open. The idea that Oman might partner with Iran on strait governance is not new. It reflects Oman’s longstanding position that stability in the waterway serves Oman’s interests regardless of which great power is fighting nearby. Trump’s response was to threaten military strikes.
There is also the matter of what Trump said about the strait itself. “The strait’s gotta be open to everybody. Nobody’s going to control it. We’ll watch over it.” That sentence describes a US military role in the Strait of Hormuz that extends beyond the current conflict, a permanent American presence overseeing navigation in a waterway that runs between Iran and Oman, both of whom have their own sovereign claims. Neither government has agreed to this.
Brent crude is at $95.01 this evening. Gas is $4.46 a gallon.
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Outside the United States, the Oman threat landed in a specific context that American coverage has not fully registered. Oman is not just a US ally. It is the most trusted neutral interlocutor in the Persian Gulf, the country that has maintained diplomatic relations with Iran through every crisis, and the one Arab state that has consistently refused to take sides in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Its neutrality is not weakness. It is the most valuable diplomatic asset in the region.
The threat also landed at Hajj. Millions of Muslim pilgrims are in Mecca. Khamenei addressed them yesterday, calling for resistance to American dominance. Earlier this week came the MEE report on Al-Aqsa. Now Trump has threatened to bomb the one Arab state that has served as the bridge between Washington and Tehran. Every piece lands on the same argument Khamenei was making. He does not need to say anything further.
The international law dimension of the toll dispute is worth understanding. The Law of the Sea Treaty guarantees a right of “innocent passage” for ships transiting international straits. Neither Iran nor the United States has ratified the convention. That cuts both ways: Iran cannot cite it as legal cover for the toll arrangement, but the US cannot cite it as a legal constraint on Iran either. What Iran is asserting, and what Trump is rejecting with a threat of military force, is a question that neither government has the treaty standing to resolve unilaterally. “Not having ratified the convention doesn’t give Iran total freedom of action in the Strait of Hormuz,” Julien Raynaut, who heads the French Association of Maritime Law, told AP. “It remains subject to international law and notably this customary right of passage.” Philippe Delebecque, a maritime law expert at the Sorbonne, called an Iranian toll arrangement a potential “end of an international society” — and noted the downstream risk: if the Strait of Hormuz can be closed and tolled, the Strait of Gibraltar and the Strait of Malacca are next. Julien Raynaut went further, noting that an Iranian tollbooth could give China grounds to restrict movement in the Taiwan Strait.
Regional and international media covered the Oman threat with a register that US coverage has not matched. The reaction is not just concern about the threat to Oman specifically. It is a reading of what American leadership means in practice, delivered in the same week Washington demanded Arab normalization with Israel, moved to strip Jordan’s Al-Aqsa custodianship, and resumed strikes on Iran while talks were underway.
What makes the threat particularly striking is Oman’s history in this war. Iran struck Oman repeatedly in early March — hitting the ports of Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar, killing workers, injuring others. Oman absorbed those strikes, maintained its neutrality, and continued to serve as the diplomatic bridge between Washington and Tehran anyway. Trump threatened to bomb the country that Iran already attacked, and that kept talking.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Trump threatened military strikes against a US ally and key diplomatic partner at a Cabinet meeting today, in the same breath in which he declared that the United States will permanently oversee navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. No treaty gives the US that authority. No allied government has endorsed it. The MoU is still not signed. The Oman threat makes it harder to sign, because it tells every government in the region exactly what American partnership looks like when it is inconvenient.
Sources: Yahoo News/Reuters (wire — Trump Cabinet meeting quote, Oman threat, full context); Washington Times/AP (wire — “watch over it” quote, strait framing); CNN live blog (US — Iranian state TV fabrication, White House denial, “I don’t care about the midterms,” diplomats still don’t know timing); Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — Oman’s diplomatic role, Gulf context); Reuters (wire — US military strategic port deal with Oman confirmed); AP (wire — Iran 10-point peace proposal includes Oman toll provision, sourced to regional official speaking anonymously; Law of the Sea Treaty context, Delebecque/Sorbonne quote, Raynaut/French Association of Maritime Law quote, Taiwan Strait precedent, confirmed by editor this session); Bloomberg (markets/international — Iran-Oman permanent toll discussions, Iranian ambassador quote); Jerusalem Post (Israel, centre-right — NYT reporting on fee vs toll legal distinction, Persian Gulf Strait Authority, Rubio “unacceptable” quote); MEXC/AP (wire via MEXC — April ceasefire $2 million per vessel toll confirmed); Gulf News (UAE — Iran strikes on Duqm port and oil tanker, March 1); Al-Ahram Weekly (Egypt, state-affiliated — Salalah and Sohar strikes, Oman neutrality context)
ISRAEL IS EXPANDING. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE DEAL.
More than 120 Israeli airstrikes hit Lebanon on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Israel issued evacuation orders for Tyre, a major southern port city, and announced strikes on a Hezbollah headquarters in the Tyre district. Near-continuous artillery shelling hit towns on the outskirts of Nabatieh, which has been under evacuation orders since Tuesday. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health counted at least 31 people killed and 40 injured in Tuesday’s strikes alone.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said late Tuesday that a large Israeli ground force was pushing deep into southern Lebanon to seize areas and fortify what he called a “security zone.” Israeli forces have crossed the Litani River in the Tyre district. Al Jazeera’s correspondent reporting from Tyre described what was happening on the ground: airstrikes on a cemetery within the city limits of Nabatieh, artillery fire on surrounding villages, and residents moving north ahead of the Israeli advance. The ceasefire announced April 16 is no longer functioning as a ceasefire.
The connection to the MoU is direct. Iran has stated throughout the negotiations that any final agreement must include an end to the fighting in Lebanon, not just the US-Iran conflict. Israel is escalating in Lebanon. The two tracks are moving in opposite directions while Washington manages both simultaneously and apparently has not reconciled them. There is no public statement from the White House addressing this. There is no sign the Lebanese government has been consulted on how its south is being used as a negotiating factor.
The internal Israeli debate is fractious in ways that tell their own story. Hezbollah struck a home in Metula with a UAV and damaged a school bus stop in Shomera with an explosive drone earlier this week. No injuries were reported in those strikes, but Hezbollah has also launched rockets, artillery, and exploding drones at Israeli troops and vehicles moving along the Litani. The IDF’s Northern Command said civilian harm “is not a reality we can accept or treat as routine.” Smotrich announced that northern Israeli residents will not be evacuated during the current operation, a deliberate contrast with the mass evacuations of 2024 when hundreds of thousands were displaced. “We made a decision in the cabinet overnight that this time we are not evacuating anyone,” he said. The IDF is simultaneously trying to push north in Lebanon while protecting a civilian population it has ordered to stay put.
Lebanon-Israel talks are scheduled for June 2-3 in Washington, six days away. Until recently, Israel’s stated position was that it was operating within the ceasefire framework against Hezbollah violations. Today, Israel is shelling cities.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Israel is shelling Lebanese cities six days before Lebanon-Israel talks are scheduled in Washington. Iran says no final deal gets signed without an end to the fighting in Lebanon. The fighting is not ending. It is expanding. The administration has not publicly addressed the contradiction.
Sources: Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — Tyre evacuation orders, Nabatieh shelling, Tyre district strikes, Netanyahu “security zone”); Reuters/AP via Jefferson City News-Tribune (wire — 120 strikes Tuesday, Lebanese security sources, ceasefire framing, Litani crossing); Times of Israel May 26 liveblog (Israel, centre-right — Metula UAV strike, Shomera school bus stop, Hezbollah drone attacks, Northern Command statement, Smotrich no-evacuation decision); Times of Israel May 25 liveblog (Israel, centre-right — Smotrich Beirut demand, defenseless quote, Zamir operational latitude, Netanyahu “press the pedal even harder”); Yahoo News/AP (wire — Smotrich cabinet decision quote, northern communities context); Reuters via AOL (wire — Barrot ceasefire must cover Lebanon, April 9); French Ministry of Foreign Affairs (primary — France condemns April 8 strikes “in the strongest terms,” demands ceasefire include Lebanon); French Ministry of Armed Forces (primary — Sergent-chef Florian Montorio, April 18 death confirmed, ambush details, biographical record)
HUNGRY BEFORE THE WAVE
More Americans are going hungry today than at any point during the pandemic. That is the finding of a survey released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, based on data collected in February 2026. The survey found that 10 percent of US households reported missing meals for lack of food, up from 4 percent in mid-2020. Among families earning less than $50,000 a year, nearly 20 percent said they had been forced to skip meals or go without.
The data comes from the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, the same instrument the central bank uses to track inflation expectations. The researchers describe a “K-shaped economy” in which rising asset values have insulated wealthier households while lower- and middle-income families have absorbed years of elevated prices on housing, food, and utilities. Cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program have compounded the pressure. The NY Fed called the rise in food insecurity “remarkable.” The Community Food Bank of Central Alabama is moving into a larger building. The Golden Harvest Food Bank in Augusta, Georgia reports two-to-three mile lines the night before distributions open. “They’re sleeping in their cars,” said its director, Amy Breitmann.
The February survey, conducted in February 2026 just as the Iran war began, captures none of what has happened since. The war’s economic impact arrives in stages: energy prices first, then fertilizer costs, then seed prices, then lower yields, then commodity inflation, then food prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization warned this month that the Hormuz closure is not a shipping disruption but a systemic agrifood shock that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to twelve months. The Dallas Federal Reserve modeled the war’s inflation impact and found it raised US annualized headline inflation by 1.7 percentage points in the first quarter of 2026, with elevated inflation persisting through the third quarter. Goldman Sachs estimated that higher fertilizer costs from the war alone could push food prices up by roughly 1.5 percent this year.
The February baseline the NY Fed is measuring against is pre-war. The people sleeping in their cars at food bank distributions in Georgia are going to absorb the war’s inflationary wave on top of what was already the worst food insecurity in six years. The strait is still closed. The wave has not arrived.
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: The NY Fed findings are being covered internationally as a data point in a larger argument about the structural condition of the American economy. The K-shaped framing, in which aggregate growth coexists with acute deprivation at the bottom, is not a new observation outside the United States. What is new is a Federal Reserve institution publishing it with the word “remarkable” attached, and releasing it on the same day that a US president threatened to bomb an Arab ally over control of the waterway that drives the food inflation still to come.
The FAO warning about a six-to-twelve-month global food price crisis from the Hormuz closure has been covered across international agricultural press, development organizations, and regional outlets in food-insecure countries. It has received almost no US coverage. The countries most exposed to the food shock are not the United States. They are the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and the Middle East that depend on Gulf fertilizer exports and global shipping routes. But the data on American food insecurity establishes that the American domestic baseline is already fragile before the external shock lands.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found this week that more Americans are going hungry than at any point during the pandemic, and the data is from February, before the Iran war’s economic effects reached American grocery prices. The FAO says a global food price crisis is six to twelve months away. Goldman Sachs has modeled what the fertilizer cost increases alone do to your grocery bill. The war that was supposed to be about nuclear weapons has a direct line to what food costs at the checkout. The people sleeping in their cars outside food banks tonight will not have to wait six months to feel it. They are already there.
Sources: CNBC (US — NY Fed survey, K-shaped economy, SNAP cuts, “remarkable” quote); NPR (US — 10%/4% comparison, household figures by income, food bank quotes, Breitmann quote); FAO via GlobalSecurity.org (primary — systemic agrifood shock warning, six-to-twelve month timeline, supply chain stages); Dallas Fed (primary — 1.7 percentage point inflation impact, Q1 2026, persistence through Q3); Goldman Sachs via AOL/Reuters (wire — 1.5% food price increase from fertilizer costs)
WAR DAY 87 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,468 killed, 26,500+ injured (Iran Health Ministry, National Health, Defence and Interior Ministries via Al Jazeera tracker, May 20)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 3,185 killed (Lebanese Health Ministry via WAFA, May 26)
🇮🇱 Israel: 26 killed, 7,791 injured (Al Jazeera tracker, May 20)
🇵🇸 Palestine: 4 killed (Al Jazeera tracker, May 20 — ongoing strikes not reflected; floor estimate only)
🇸🇾 Syria: 4 killed (Al Jazeera tracker, May 20)
🌍 Gulf states / Iraq: 146 killed in Iran-attributed attacks (Al Jazeera tracker, May 20 — Bahrain 3, Kuwait 7, Oman 3, Saudi Arabia 3, UAE 12, Iraq 118)
🇺🇸 US military: 13 killed, 381 injured (Al Jazeera tracker, May 20)
🛢️ Brent crude: $95.01/barrel (OilPrice.com, Wednesday evening)
⛽ US national gas average: $4.46/gallon (AAA, confirmed this session)
Sourcing note: All war casualty figures sourced to Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated May 20, 2026 at 08:45 GMT, citing Iran Health Ministry, National Health, Defence and Interior Ministries, except Lebanon which is updated to May 26 via WAFA/Lebanese Health Ministry. Palestine figure reflects tracker only and does not include casualties from recent strikes. Methodology differs between countries; figures should not be treated as directly comparable.
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789
