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THE DEAL HE MADE
Wednesday was the six-year review deadline for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The Trump administration did not renew it.
The USMCA governs $1.9 trillion in annual trade between the three countries. Trump negotiated it in his first term to replace NAFTA and called it “the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law.” On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, “The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed.”
The legal picture requires precision. The agreement does not immediately terminate. It remains in effect until 2036. But non-renewal replaces a clean 16-year extension with annual reviews, during which any party can trigger renegotiation. The Trump administration reserves the right to withdraw entirely with six months’ notice, a right Greer pointedly did not disclaim. A senior administration official told reporters, “Just because it has a 10-year timeline, it doesn’t mean you have to wait those 10 years to conclude the agreement,” and that “if the countries can’t address problems within that time, the USMCA would end after 10 years, and certainly the president retains an ability to exit the agreement earlier, should he see fit.”
The administration’s stated primary concern is US trade deficits with Canada and Mexico. Canada and Mexico are America’s two largest individual trading partners — Mexico approaching $1 trillion annually, Canada between $760 billion and $877 billion. Since USMCA took effect in July 2020, trade among the three countries has grown 37%, now exceeding $1.9 trillion annually. All three parties have benefited.
Canada is in a particularly exposed position. USMCA currently exempts roughly 90% of Canada’s exports to the US from Trump’s tariffs. That exemption is now explicitly conditional on renegotiation. Ottawa has sought relief on steel, aluminum, autos, and softwood lumber; a senior administration official described Canada as being in “a different position” from Mexico, and accused Ottawa of failing to address “non-tariff barriers and trade challenges.” A third round of US-Mexico negotiations is scheduled for the week of July 20. No date has been set for US-Canada talks.
Trump has historically described USMCA as his deal. He signed it. He praised it. He has now declined to renew it, initiating a process that could unravel it entirely within a decade — or sooner, if he chooses to exercise his withdrawal right.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Trump declined to renew the trade agreement he negotiated, covering $1.9 trillion in annual commerce with America’s two largest trading partners. The deal doesn’t die immediately — annual reviews replace the 16-year extension, and the agreement runs until 2036 unless someone withdraws. The US has reserved that right. Canada’s 90% tariff exemption now depends on the outcome of negotiations that have no confirmed start date. Car companies and their supply chains, which depend on North American parts moving freely across three borders, are operating in a new era of structural uncertainty.
Sources: CNBC (US — Greer statement verbatim confirmed, “primary concern” trade deficit confirmed, June 30 review deadline confirmed, July 1); CBC (Canada, public broadcaster — 90% tariff exemption confirmed, Canada “different position” official quote confirmed, $1.9 trillion trade confirmed, 37% growth confirmed, July 1); ABC News (US — “best agreement we’ve ever made” Trump 2020 quote confirmed, senior official “10-year timeline” quote confirmed, rules of origin discussions confirmed, July 1); The Hill (US — USMCA remains in force confirmed, July 20 third round Mexico talks confirmed, annual reviews confirmed, July 1)
SOUTH AFRICA
In South Africa since March 2026, anti-immigrant groups have been building toward a deadline they set themselves: June 30. Every undocumented migrant in the country was told to leave by that date. The deadline passed Tuesday.
What followed spread across multiple cities. Thousands of police were deployed in Johannesburg, Pretoria, Durban, and Cape Town. The military was placed on standby. In Soweto, protesters looted foreign-owned businesses. In Thembisa, a Johannesburg suburb, rioters threw stones at police and suspected migrants and witnesses reported sporadic gunfire. In Benoni, police fired live shots after confronting a group of roughly 500 protesters. One hundred Congolese nationals were found sleeping on the streets of Durban after being evicted from their homes.
The movement is organized primarily by a group called March and March, led by Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma, a former radio presenter who has given the campaign an “active citizenship” framing. The deadline was arbitrary — the government rejected it and said only authorities can enforce immigration law. March and March plans weekly marches until its demands are met. “For the next six months, we are asking for our national resources to be used to take the illegal immigrants out of this country,” Ngobese-Zuma said. “From building to building — they must go.”
The context is decades old and the current wave is the worst since 2008, when xenophobic attacks killed 62 people. Seven people have been killed in the current wave since March. South Africa has a documented 32% unemployment rate. It has roughly three million immigrants, between four and five percent of the population, a share that is low by global standards. The unemployment rate has driven an anti-immigrant narrative that researchers say lacks evidentiary support: immigrants are predominantly employed in low-wage work that South Africans largely do not take, and studies consistently show they do not displace native workers at scale.
Nigeria, Ghana, and Mozambique have all initiated the repatriation of their citizens. Mozambique said five of its nationals were killed in xenophobic attacks. Hundreds of Malawians camped outside in the South African winter — July is midwinter in the Southern Hemisphere — waiting for buses to take them home. A pregnant DRC national told NPR she is afraid she will be killed before she gives birth. “I feel so sad, especially as I’m pregnant, I’m scared they’ll kill me,” she said.
The African Union has condemned the violence. The United Nations has condemned it. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa has condemned it while simultaneously acknowledging “the challenge of illegal immigration,” a formulation that satisfies neither foreign governments watching their citizens’ safety deteriorate nor protesters demanding mass deportations.
The World Cup has added an unexpected dimension. When South Africa played Mexico in the tournament’s opening match on June 11 and lost 2-0, fans across Africa cheered the defeat. In a Kenyan sports bar in Nairobi, a 37-year-old woman named Shahim clenched her fists in joy every time South Africa missed an opportunity. “Everything is political in football,” she told AFP. “We’re against what South Africa is standing for.” The slogan “Mexico versus xenophobia” trended on social media across the continent. A Congolese supporter at an Atlanta fan park told the BBC, “Africa is like one country and if one is chasing others, we are not a family any more.” South Africa qualified for the 2026 World Cup for only the second time in their history. The rest of Africa is not entirely on their side.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: South Africa is experiencing its worst wave of anti-immigrant violence since 2008, when xenophobic attacks killed 62 people. Seven people have been killed since March. The June 30 deadline has passed and the organizing groups plan weekly marches. Nigeria, Ghana, and Mozambique are evacuating their citizens. This story is receiving almost no sustained American coverage.
Sources: Fox News / Reuters (US/wire — June 30 violence confirmed, Soweto looting confirmed, Thembisa gunfire confirmed, Benoni police shots confirmed, 100 Congolese Durban confirmed, military standby confirmed, July 1); CBC / Reuters (Canada/wire — weekly marches confirmed, 103 criminal cases confirmed, Ramaphosa statement confirmed, June 30 protest context confirmed, June 30); CNN (US — 2008 comparison confirmed, 62 killed 2008 confirmed, 32% unemployment confirmed, three million immigrants/5% confirmed, low by global standards confirmed, Mozambique five killed confirmed, June 29); NPR (US — “they’ll kill me” pregnant DRC woman quote confirmed, Malawians camped outside confirmed, Durban tinder keg confirmed, June 25); France 24 (France, public broadcaster — 109,344 deportations confirmed, 46% increase confirmed, 698 xenophobic deaths since 1994 confirmed, 8,000 processed Beitbridge confirmed, June 29); AFP / BSS News (wire — Shahim Nairobi quote confirmed, “everything is political in football” confirmed, Czech Republic match context confirmed, June 19); Yahoo Sports / BBC (US/UK — “Mexico versus xenophobia” slogan confirmed, Congolese Atlanta fan quote confirmed, BBC Juba coverage confirmed, June 11); Pindula / Wikipedia — 2026 Anti-Immigration Protests (secondary — seven killed since March confirmed, March and March founding confirmed, Operation Dudula confirmed, AU/UN condemnation confirmed — corroborated by primary sources above)
THE MOU — DAY 16
Qatar’s Prime Minister met with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Doha on Tuesday. Iran’s conditions for beginning technical nuclear talks are now formally on the record: hostilities in Lebanon must end first, and frozen Iranian assets must be released first.
Neither condition has been met. Lebanon continues to be struck daily. The assets remain frozen. Day 16 of 60.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Iran will not begin nuclear talks until Lebanon stops burning and its money is released. Neither thing has happened. The clock is running.
Sources: Al Jazeera live blog (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — Qatar PM meeting confirmed, Iran conditions confirmed, Lebanon ceasefire first confirmed, assets release first confirmed, July 1)
ALSO DEVELOPING
Major Jason Watson, an active-duty US Air Force officer currently on leave from his post in Poland, was arrested Wednesday on the steps of the US Capitol. He had just delivered a speech calling for the impeachment, conviction, and removal of President Trump and Vice President Vance — then walked to the Capitol steps, stood in full uniform, and held a sign reading “Impeach. Convict. Remove.” Demonstrating on the Capitol steps is prohibited unless accompanied by a member of Congress. Representative Al Green of Texas stood beside Watson during the press conference. When Green left the area, Capitol Police told Watson to stop. He refused. He was arrested and charged with crowding, obstructing, and incommoding.
Watson said Trump should be impeached for ordering military strikes against Iran and Venezuela without congressional approval, in violation of the War Powers Clause. “These violations resulted in the deaths of 13 service members and injuries of hundreds more,” he said. “For this, the President and Vice President must be impeached, convicted, and removed.”
Watson enlisted in 2005. He said he is not a Democrat and knows “next to nothing” about Green’s policy positions. He praised Green as the only member of Congress who has shown the courage to force an impeachment vote. He risked his career, his pension, and potential prosecution under UCMJ Article 88, which prohibits commissioned officers from using contemptuous words toward the president. He knew all of this when he walked up the steps.
No foreign press coverage of Watson had been confirmed by publication time. That will likely change today.
Sources: Washington Times (US — Watson arrested confirmed, Removal Coalition press conference confirmed, Green accompaniment confirmed, Poland post confirmed, 2005 enlistment confirmed, not a Democrat confirmed, career/pension risk confirmed, July 1); Mediaite (US — Watson speech quotes verbatim confirmed, 13 service members quote confirmed, Free Speech for People statement confirmed, July 1); Sharad’s Room / Substack (US, independent — Capitol steps prohibition confirmed, Green departure/arrest trigger confirmed, “crowding obstructing incommoding” charges confirmed, UCMJ Article 88 risk confirmed, July 1)
WAR DAY 124 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,468 killed, 26,500+ injured (Iran Ministry of Health, via Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 4,230 killed, 12,179 injured (Lebanon Ministry of Public Health, updated June 25)
🇮🇱 Israel: 35+ killed (Israeli news source via Time, June 21 — tracker frozen June 10)
🌍 Gulf states/Iraq: 131 killed — Iraq 118, Kuwait 7, Bahrain 3, Oman 3 (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🇺🇸 US military: 13 killed, 381 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🛢️ Brent crude: $71.02/barrel (OilPrice.com — OPEC+ July production increase continuing to weigh; Brent down 23% for Q2, worst quarter since 2020)
⛽ US national gas average: $3.84/gallon (AAA — down $0.72 from the May 21 peak of $4.56)
Sourcing note: All war casualty figures sourced to the Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10, 2026, except Lebanon. Lebanon updated to 4,230 killed, 12,179 injured per Lebanon Ministry of Public Health, confirmed June 25. All figures are floor estimates. Methodology differs between sources; figures are not directly comparable.
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789
