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HORMUZ
Brent crude is at $72.68 this morning. On February 27, the day before the war began, it was $72. The war is over in the numbers that matter most to ordinary people.
The Strait of Hormuz is functionally reopening. Tanker traffic has climbed steadily through the week. The UAE is now exporting oil at nearly 85% of pre-war levels. The International Energy Agency estimates oil prices have dropped about 40% from their wartime peak. The IMO has secured safety guarantees and begun evacuation of the more than 11,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf. GPS interference in the Strait has subsided.
Iran issued a new navigation warning Thursday morning, declaring the alternative northern and southern routes “unacceptable and dangerous” and warning ships against transiting without Iranian clearance. The main central route remains mined. The warning is Iran maintaining pressure on the 60-day clock, not a new closure. Rubio said Tuesday in Kuwait that “no country” can legally charge for Strait transit. Iran and Oman have said otherwise.
Secretary of State Rubio is completing a Gulf tour — Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain — defending the Trump administration’s decision to lift Iran sanctions as “temporary.” On Tuesday, he was present when the US Embassy in Kuwait reopened, the first US embassy reopening since the war began. The embassy had been struck multiple times by Iranian drones and suspended operations in early March. Rubio watched the flag raised. Two American citizens, journalist Reza Valizadeh and businessman Kamran Hekmati, remain wrongfully detained in Iran. Both are dual US-Iranian citizens. Neither was part of the MOU.
Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday accusing oil companies of price gouging and announced he has directed the DOJ to investigate why gasoline prices have not fallen faster. “Those prices are dropping like a rock!” he wrote. He is not wrong about the direction. Gas is $3.92 this morning, down from $4.56 at the May 21 peak and approaching the $3.25 it was when this publication launched its war coverage on March 5.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Brent crude is back to pre-war levels. Gas is $3.92. The Strait is functionally open. Two Americans are still detained in Iran and are not part of the deal. Trump is threatening the DOJ on gasoline prices. The war’s economic consequences are unwinding faster than its diplomatic ones.
Sources: CNBC (US — $73.74 Wednesday close confirmed as lowest since pre-war, Trump Truth Social DOJ quote confirmed, IMO safety guarantees confirmed, Dominguez statement confirmed, June 24); Trading Economics (market data — Brent below $74 Wednesday confirmed, 40% drop from peak confirmed, IEA UAE 85% exports confirmed, June 24); EIA (US government — Brent $72/barrel February 27 pre-war confirmed, $61 January start confirmed); CNN live blog (US — Kuwait embassy reopened midnight June 24 confirmed, Rubio present confirmed, drone strikes history confirmed, Valizadeh and Hekmati wrongful detention confirmed, June 24); Wikipedia / 2026 Iran war (background — Iran new navigation warning June 25 confirmed, “unacceptable and dangerous” language confirmed, alternative routes warning); France 24 (France, public broadcaster — Rubio “no country can charge” confirmed, Iran/Oman fees position confirmed)
THE REVERSAL
Twenty-four hours after the Senate passed a War Powers resolution directing Trump to end the Iran war, it reversed itself.
Tuesday’s 50-48 vote was historic. Both chambers of Congress had, for the first time since 1973, directed a president to remove US forces from hostilities. It stood for one day.
Trump spent Wednesday berating Senate Republicans at their Capitol lunch, calling the four who voted against him “losers” and calling Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana a “lunatic” to his face. After the lunch, Cassidy received a private briefing from Vice President Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff. That evening, the Senate held a late-night vote on a separate but nearly identical resolution. This time Cassidy voted no. Rand Paul, who had voted yes on Tuesday, voted present. The motion failed 50-47. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski voted yes again. The resolution died.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune called Trump after the vote to tell him the outcome. Trump posted on Truth Social, “This vote puts Iran on notice!” He thanked Thune. He noted that Cassidy and Paul had switched.
Tuesday’s resolution still stands. The House passed the same measure earlier this month. Together they are the first time both chambers have approved a War Powers resolution on the same conflict since the act was passed in 1973. Nothing about Wednesday’s vote undoes that. What Wednesday’s vote does is show how durable the Senate’s willingness to hold that line is. One lunch. One briefing. One vote reversed.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: The Senate passed a War Powers resolution on Tuesday directing Trump to end the Iran war. By Wednesday night, after Trump called them losers and lunatics at a Capitol lunch, enough senators flipped to block a second identical resolution. Tuesday’s vote still stands and is still historic. Wednesday’s vote tells you what it cost to get there and how quickly it can erode.
Sources: ABC News (US — Cassidy reversal confirmed, Vance/Witkoff briefing confirmed, “lunatic” quote confirmed, June 24); CNN (US — 50-47 vote confirmed, Paul voted present, Collins/Murkowski yes again, Fetterman no again, June 24); CBS News (US — “pleased with the outcome” Thune quote confirmed, June 24); AP / US News (US wire — Trump “losers” quote confirmed, “This vote puts Iran on notice” confirmed, Thune call confirmed, Cornyn “dangerous” quote confirmed, June 25); Prism News (US — first time both chambers approved since 1973 confirmed, Tuesday resolution still stands confirmed, June 25)
EUROPE
Two developments this week — one in the Middle East, one in the Pacific — confirm the same thing: Europe is building its own security architecture, independent of Washington.
In Lebanon, the European Union’s diplomatic service has circulated a document to all 27 member countries proposing a three-year military and civilian mission to advise and train Lebanese forces. The document, seen by Reuters and dated June 17, proposes a mission that would “support the Lebanese authorities in reinforcing territorial control and border security through strengthening the capacities of the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces.” It would focus on land border regiments, intelligence, surveillance, and gendarmerie units. Any such mission requires approval from all 27 EU member states. It has not been approved. But it has been circulated — on the same day the US and Iran signed the MOU at Versailles.
The EU is proposing to fill the security gap in Lebanon that the MOU created but cannot enforce. Point 1 of the MOU calls for the immediate and permanent end to military operations in Lebanon. The MOU has no enforcement mechanism. The EU is offering one, on its own terms, with a three-year mandate, funded by European governments, independent of both the US-Iran framework and the existing UNIFIL mission whose mandate the UN Security Council voted to terminate in 2025.
In the Pacific, the UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement raising alarm about Chinese naval activities off eastern Taiwan. China’s newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sailed through the Taiwan Strait this week, its first such mission since April. Three European powers acting jointly on Taiwan is unusual. Europe’s Pacific posture has historically deferred to the United States. That deference is changing.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Europe is proposing its own military mission in Lebanon, independent of the deal the US just negotiated. Three European powers jointly raised alarm about China off Taiwan. Both things happened this week, in the same week the US Senate passed a War Powers resolution against its own president’s war — then reversed itself after Trump called them losers and lunatics at a Capitol lunch — and Hegseth told NATO allies some of them would “fail” his review. Europe is not waiting for American leadership. It is building around it.
Sources: Times of Israel / Reuters (Israel/wire — EU EEAS document confirmed, June 17 date confirmed, three-year mandate confirmed, LAF/ISF focus confirmed, all 27 members must approve, June 24); FDD Overnight Brief (US — UK/France/Germany Taiwan alarm confirmed, Fujian carrier Taiwan Strait confirmed, joint statement confirmed, June 24 — note: FDD is hawkish think tank, used for confirmed factual items only)
BELARUS
Russia has been pressuring Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko since the beginning of 2026 to allow his country’s territory to be used for drone attacks on Ukraine and hybrid operations against NATO member states. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing US and European officials, that the Kremlin has specific objectives: continuous drone launches against Ukrainian targets, an expanded front toward western Ukraine, and the diversion of Ukrainian reserves from the east.
Moscow’s main lever is money. Belarus is critically dependent on Russian financial support, and the Kremlin has threatened to suspend it entirely. Russian Ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, is the primary intermediary conducting negotiations on Moscow’s behalf directly with Lukashenko.
Ukraine is watching. National Guard Commander Major General Oleksandr Pivnenko said Wednesday that Russia would need roughly 70,000 troops to launch a major offensive from Belarus, a force it cannot currently assemble without weakening its Donbas operations, which have already stalled. Ukraine has placed drone surveillance on continuous rotation along its northern border. “The events of 2022 will not be repeated here,” Pivnenko said. Zelenskyy has given Lukashenko one week to remove Russian drone relay stations from Belarusian territory.
Carnegie Endowment analysts who cover the region note there are no signs of increased military threat from Belarus compared to 2024 or 2025. Only about 2,000 Russian troops are permanently stationed there. But the nuclear dimension has deepened: Russia has deployed Oreshnik nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile systems to Belarus and conducted large-scale joint nuclear exercises there this year. Those deployments serve as strategic signals to NATO regardless of whether a ground offensive is planned.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: While Washington is focused on Iran, Russia is working to open a second front against Ukraine from Belarus. The threat is documented by US and European officials. Ukraine is monitoring its northern border and says it is prepared. What the Kremlin wants from Belarus is not an invasion — it is a platform for drones, hybrid operations, and NATO pressure. That is already happening.
Sources: RBC-Ukraine / WSJ (Ukraine — WSJ June 24 primary report cited, Gryzlov confirmed, financial leverage confirmed, drone/hybrid objectives confirmed, June 24); UNITED24 Media (Ukraine — WSJ full summary confirmed, NATO hybrid operations confirmed, Belarus democratic opposition warning confirmed, June 24); Kyiv Post (Ukraine — Pivnenko “70,000 troops” confirmed, northern border surveillance confirmed, “2022 will not be repeated” quote, Zelenskyy relay station demand confirmed, June 22); Carnegie Endowment (think tank, nonpartisan — 2,000 troops confirmed, no increased threat vs 2024-25 assessment, Oreshnik deployment confirmed, nuclear exercises confirmed, May 2026)
RETATRUTIDE
Millions of Americans are waiting for retatrutide. It is an experimental obesity drug made by Eli Lilly that has shown bariatric-surgery levels of weight loss in clinical trials. It is not yet approved by the FDA. It will not complete its Phase 3 trial until 2028.
One person did not wait. In April, a senior clinician at the National Institutes of Health submitted an unusual request to the FDA on behalf of a 79-year-old man, seeking access to retatrutide through the agency’s “compassionate use” program, a pathway reserved for patients with serious or immediately life-threatening conditions. The FDA and Eli Lilly approved it. The request cited diagnoses of refractory obesity, obstructive sleep apnea, and pulmonary hypertension. Three sources with knowledge of the matter told STAT News the request drew the interest of top health officials, suggesting the patient was well connected.
Experts who spoke with STAT found it baffling. Compassionate use programs typically cover large numbers of patients. This one covered exactly one person. For a condition that affects 50 million Americans. “Often, drugmakers will establish compassionate use programs for large cohorts of patients,” one expert said. “It’s like saying we have all these people who need to get from New York to D.C., and rather than chartering a bus, we’re going to tell everyone that they need to drive their own car.” No one could recall another case of the FDA granting a single-patient compassionate use exception for a drug treating a condition as common as obesity.
Representative Ted Lieu asked the White House directly whether the patient was President Trump, who turned 80 last week and who used the same compassionate use pathway in 2020 to access Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody cocktail for COVID-19. The White House denied it. FDA Deputy Commissioner Vinay Desai posted on X, “Because this has to be spelled out for @LizzyLaw_, who has proven herself to be an unserious gossip columnist, this application was not for the President.” STAT reporter Lizzy Lawrence confirmed she does not know who the patient is.
The denial does not answer the underlying question. One well-connected 79-year-old received exclusive FDA access to a drug 50 million Americans cannot get, through a program designed for terminal illness, for a condition as common as obesity. Whether or not the patient is the president, the question of who got that access — and why — has not been answered.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: The FDA gave one person — a well-connected 79-year-old — early exclusive access to an unapproved obesity drug through a program designed for life-threatening illness. Fifty million Americans have obesity. The FDA has not explained why this one patient qualified. The White House denied it was Trump. The question of who it was remains unanswered.
Sources: STAT News (US — primary investigation, three anonymous sources, NIH clinician Ranganath Muniyappa named, April request confirmed, obstructive sleep apnea and pulmonary hypertension diagnoses confirmed, “drew interest of top health officials” confirmed, expert bafflement confirmed, June 23); Snopes (US fact-check — White House denial confirmed, Desai X post confirmed, Lawrence “I don’t know who the patient is” confirmed, Trump 2020 compassionate use pathway confirmed, Phase 3 trial 2028 end date confirmed, June 24); The Hill (US — Lieu question confirmed, Desai full quote confirmed, sleep apnea diagnosis confirmed, June 24); New Republic (US — comprehensive summary, one-patient cohort expert quote confirmed, “bus vs. car” analogy confirmed, June 23)
CHINA
China has the world’s fastest supercomputer for the first time since 2017. LineShine, installed at the National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen, topped the TOP500 global ranking announced Tuesday at the International Supercomputing Conference in Hamburg. It achieved 2.198 exaflops — more than 2 quintillion calculations per second — 20% ahead of the US system El Capitan at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. It was built entirely on domestically designed chips, with no foreign components anywhere in the stack. China had not submitted a system to the TOP500 ranking since 2023, having quietly withdrawn amid US export controls. LineShine is the answer to those controls: a supercomputer built without American technology that beats American technology.
One important caveat confirmed by experts: LineShine ranked fourth on a separate benchmark designed to simulate AI workloads, behind three American systems. Topping the TOP500 is not the same as leading on AI. Jack Dongarra, a founder of the TOP500 list, told Al Jazeera, “Export controls may slow China’s access to certain advanced components, but they also provide a strong incentive to develop domestic alternatives.”
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: China now has the world’s fastest supercomputer, built entirely without American chips. US export controls did not prevent this. They may have accelerated it. The same week American courts ruled they cannot hear cases against American companies that help China build surveillance infrastructure, China demonstrated it can build world-leading computing infrastructure without American help.
Sources: Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — TOP500 confirmed, 2.198 exaflops confirmed, 20% lead confirmed, Hamburg conference confirmed, Dongarra quote confirmed, AI benchmark fourth place confirmed, June 24); South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, editorially independent — LineShine confirmed, El Capitan 1.809 exaflops confirmed, CPU-only first confirmed, Dongarra SCMP quote confirmed, June 24); Technology.org / TOP500 (US — no foreign components confirmed, China’s first entry since 2023 confirmed, AI chip export controls context confirmed, June 23)
WAR DAY 117 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,468 killed, 26,500+ injured (Iran Ministry of Health, via Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 4,000+ killed (Lebanon Health Ministry, confirmed June 21 per Time — tracker frozen June 10)
🇮🇱 Israel: 35+ killed (Israeli news source via Time, June 21 — tracker frozen June 10)
🌍 Gulf states/Iraq: 131 killed — Iraq 118, Kuwait 7, Bahrain 3, Oman 3 (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🇺🇸 US military: 13 killed, 381 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🛢️ Brent crude: $72.68/barrel (OilPrice.com — back to pre-war levels; Brent was ~$72 on February 27, the day before the war began; $23.46 below the May 21 peak of $96.14)
⛽ US national gas average: $3.92/gallon (AAA)
Sourcing note: All war casualty figures sourced to the Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10, 2026, except Lebanon and Israel. Lebanon updated to 4,000+ per Lebanon Health Ministry confirmed by Time, June 21. Israel updated to 35+ per Israeli news source via Time, June 21. All figures are floor estimates. Methodology differs between sources; figures are not directly comparable.
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789
