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ONE YEAR, AND A DEAL THAT MAY FINALLY BE CLOSE
Today is June 13. One year ago today, Israel launched strikes targeting the heart of Iran’s nuclear program and its missile capabilities. That 12-day conflict was the precursor to the longer war that began on February 28. The war is now in its 106th day. As of this morning, it may be closer to ending than it has ever been.
For the first time since negotiations began, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke publicly on Iranian state television and described what a memorandum of understanding would contain. In an interview with state-run IRIB TV on Friday night, Araghchi said the signing could take place within the next few days, conducted digitally by both sides in their respective countries. Following the signing, both parties would commit not to initiate further hostilities, and begin a second stage of 60-day negotiations focused on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions removal.
Tehran insists the only acceptable way of dealing with its highly enriched uranium stockpile is diluting it within Iranian territory — not surrendering it, not transferring it abroad. Araghchi said the MoU would include provisions ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and requiring Israel to withdraw. Iran retains sovereignty and a military presence over the Strait of Hormuz, the pre-war management arrangement does not return, a legal framework consistent with international law will be established, and while tolls are off the table, service fees are reasonable and under negotiation.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X Friday with the most definitive characterization made by any party to the negotiations: “We can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps. Peace has never been this close as it is now.” No US official confirmed that characterization on June 12. Iran’s institutional voices — the Foreign Ministry, Tasnim, and IRGC-aligned channels — each declined to confirm finality. Pakistan has been one of the two primary mediating countries alongside Qatar throughout the negotiations; the formal title of the emerging agreement is the Islamabad MOU.
The complications have not disappeared. Mohsen Rezaei, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander and current military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said Friday that Trump had accepted the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets but was unwilling to announce it publicly. Vice President JD Vance pushed back the same day, saying “the Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting.” Those two statements cannot both be true. No announcement came from Washington on Friday. The deal is not signed. The Strait remains closed.
Trump said Saturday morning that the signing will happen Sunday.
CNN’s count stands at 38 times — across social media posts, public appearances, and phone calls with media — that Trump has claimed a deal was imminent or that Iran was desperate to cut one, dating to before the ceasefire. What is different this morning is that Iran’s foreign minister is saying the same thing on state television. That has not happened before.
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Xinhua’s dispatch from Tehran, published early this morning, marks the first time Iran’s government has signaled readiness publicly rather than through back channels. For weeks, the public posture from Tehran was denial or silence; Araghchi’s IRIB interview is something different. The question international analysts are watching is whether this represents genuine Supreme Leader authorization or whether Araghchi is again running ahead of Khamenei’s approval. The Times of Israel reported Friday that an Israeli source said Iran’s negotiators “do not have signing rights” without the Supreme Leader’s explicit approval, and that there are no confirmed indications Khamenei has given it.
June 13, 2025 represented Israel acting unilaterally against a country with which the United States was still nominally at peace. Eight months later the US was at war. The anniversary is a marker of how quickly the architecture of the Middle East was remade, and how unresolved it remains.
🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: One year ago today, a conflict began that has now killed more than 7,300 people across the region, closed the world’s most important oil chokepoint, and pushed gas prices to $4.09 per gallon. Trump said Saturday morning the deal will be signed Sunday. Iran’s foreign minister described terms on state television. Pakistan’s prime minister announced a final text. The last remaining question is whether the man who actually controls Iran — not its foreign minister, not its negotiators — has said yes. His name is Mojtaba Khamenei, and he has not spoken publicly.
Sources: Xinhua (China, state news agency — Araghchi IRIB interview, MoU terms, digital signing format, Lebanon provisions, Hormuz framework, Friday night); Iran International live blog (Iran/opposition-aligned, Saudi-connected — Rezaei frozen assets claim, Vance rebuttal, Tasnim caveat); Outlook India (India — Sharif X post, full quote); Sunday Guardian Live (India — Sharif announcement, Islamabad MOU title, June 12); CBS News live blog (US — Trump Sunday signing announcement, Saturday morning); CNN (US — one-year anniversary, June 13, 2025 origin strikes); CNN (US — 38 prior claims tally); Times of Israel (Israel, centre-right — signing rights, Khamenei approval status)
THREE DEAD
The US military has struck three commercial tankers in the Gulf of Oman in four days. On three of them, the crew was predominantly Indian. Three Indian sailors are confirmed dead. India has summoned Washington’s top diplomat in New Delhi. The prime ministers of the world’s largest democracy and the United States will meet at the G7 next week.
The MT Settebello, a Palau-flagged chemical and oil products tanker, was transiting the Sea of Oman carrying Iranian oil when a US MQ-9 Reaper drone fired precision munitions into its engine room at 11:14 p.m. on June 9, approximately 20 nautical miles northeast of Sohar, Oman, triggering a fire and rescue operation. The vessel had a crew of 28: 24 Indians, two Pakistanis, one Russian, one Ukrainian. The Omani navy responded to the distress call. Twenty-five crew members were rescued. Three Indian sailors were missing. India’s Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal confirmed Thursday that all three are dead — identified as Aditya Sharma, Shivanand Chaurasiya, and Patnala Suresh. The father of Aditya Sharma told Indian news agency ANI: “I have only one demand: that my son’s remains be brought back. I want to know what happened in his last moments.”
The vessel’s ship manager has disputed CENTCOM’s account. The company stated the Settebello “held no affiliation whatsoever with Iran or Iranian oil” and was engaged in legitimate commercial operations. It also disputed that any warnings were issued: “To the best of our knowledge and based on information available to us, no warning call, message or communication was ever successfully established with the vessel prior to the actions taken.” The company has called for a full international investigation and stated it holds the US Navy responsible for the deaths. CENTCOM said the vessel had been warned and had “repeatedly failed to comply with directions.” Those two accounts cannot both be accurate.
The day before the Settebello strike, US forces struck the MT Marivex, another tanker carrying Indian crew, in the same waters. All 24 Indian sailors aboard were rescued. The day after the Settebello, US forces struck a third tanker, the Guinea-Bissau flagged MT Jalveer, also carrying Indian crew. All reported safe. US Central Command confirmed it had targeted the Settebello at 11:14 pm on June 9 US time, saying the vessel had attempted to transport Iranian oil. CENTCOM confirmed the Marivex strike as well, saying it had attempted to sail to an Iranian port.
India’s Additional Secretary for the Americas, Nagaraj Naidu, summoned US Chargé d’Affaires Jason Meeks on Wednesday and lodged a formal protest. India’s Foreign Ministry condemned the strike and called for “immediate de-escalation of tensions,” describing the continuing attacks on shipping as “deeply worrisome and a direct result of the ongoing conflict.” India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Harish Parvathaneni, repeated New Delhi’s calls to “exercise restraint, avoid escalation and prioritize the safety of civilians.” Indian maritime unions have come under pressure from their members. Modi is expected to raise the issue directly with Trump when they meet on the sidelines of the G7 summit next week.
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: CNN’s international desk described India’s reaction as a “profound strategic rift” with Washington. That framing reflects how the story is landing outside the United States. India has been one of the few major democracies that did not formally condemn the US blockade enforcement when it began. India has strategic reasons for that restraint: it is deepening defense and technology partnerships with Washington, and it imports significant quantities of Russian oil through tankers that transit these waters. Three dead Indian nationals from a US precision strike changes the diplomatic calculus. Modi cannot go to the G7 and say nothing.
Thousands of Indian sailors work in the Gulf region on commercial vessels. The Settebello, Marivex, and Jalveer are not isolated incidents. This is the operating environment Indian maritime workers navigate every time they board a tanker bound for the Gulf of Oman.
🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: The US military killed three Indian citizens this week enforcing a blockade of Iran. India is a US strategic partner, a democratic ally, and the world’s most populous country. Its prime minister is about to sit across from Trump at the G7. The deaths have not been a prominent story in American media. They have been the dominant international story of the week in India, where public fury is documented and real. The administration has not issued a public apology or statement of condolence.
Sources: CNN (US — Settebello strike, engine room, rescue operation, Modi-Trump G7, “profound strategic rift”); CBS News (US — three sailors named, CENTCOM June 9 timestamp, Jalveer Hellfire missiles, Marivex Monday strike); Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — CENTCOM confirmation, crew manifest, Omani navy response, Foreign Ministry statement); Crust News (US independent — ship manager dispute, no-warnings claim, international investigation demand, MQ-9 Reaper confirmation); RT India (Russia, state media — Shipping Minister Sonowal confirmation of three deaths, UN Ambassador Parvathaneni statement — note: Russian state media; confirmed independently by CNN and Al Jazeera); BusinessToday/ANI (India — Naidu summoning of Meeks, MEA statement, father ANI quote); ZeroHedge (US, right-libertarian — CENTCOM timeline confirmation — note lean; independently confirmed details)
THE JOINT OPERATION
For two years, the Trump administration designated Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist organization, used its alleged presence in the United States to justify mass deportations under the Alien Enemies Act, and described Venezuela’s government as a criminal regime enabling the gang’s spread. On Friday night, Trump announced that US forces had killed the gang’s leader — in a military operation conducted jointly with that same Venezuelan government, now led by Acting President Delcy Rodríguez after the US captured and removed Nicolás Maduro in January.
Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, known as Niño Guerrero, was killed in a US Southern Command strike on a Tren de Aragua compound in Venezuela earlier this week. Trump announced the killing Friday evening on Truth Social: “At my direction, the United States Southern Command delivered a swift and lethal kinetic strike to successfully execute Niño Guerrero, the infamous leader of Tren De Aragua.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed on social media that US forces struck the compound with Venezuelan assistance. Venezuela’s communications ministry issued a statement confirming the joint operation involved “intelligence sharing and specialized technical support,” and that Guerrero Flores was killed during clashes with Venezuelan forces and their American partners. US Southern Command Commander General Francis Donovan confirmed the strike on a “Tren de Aragua compound.”
Guerrero Flores was indicted in December by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York on charges including racketeering, conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists, and cocaine conspiracy. The State Department had designated Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist organization in February 2025, making its members subject to the Alien Enemies Act invocations Trump used to deport Venezuelan nationals to El Salvador’s CECOT prison. CNN confirmed the broader campaign has resulted in more than 200 people killed in strikes on alleged drug boats, a figure that has received almost no coverage in American media.
Trump framed the killing as a fulfillment of his immigration enforcement pledge. “During my Campaign, I pledged to expel these monsters from our Country, and bring Justice to the families of those they slaughtered,” he wrote. He also touted the Venezuelan coordination on Truth Social: “coordinated closely with our friends in Venezuela, with whom we are working very well.”
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Thousands of Venezuelan nationals were deported to CECOT on the legal basis that Venezuela is a state harboring an enemy force targeting the United States. The same administration has since captured Maduro, recognized Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, reestablished diplomatic ties with Caracas, and is now conducting joint military operations inside Venezuela with the Rodríguez government’s security forces. The deportees in CECOT cannot appeal their designations. The government framework used to justify their detention has been replaced by a partnership.
More than 200 people killed in strikes on alleged drug boats is a number that has not been covered in proportion to its scale in American media. The strikes are occurring in international waters and in Venezuela. Their legal basis, their target identification methodology, and their civilian impact have not been publicly scrutinized.
🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: The administration used Tren de Aragua as the legal justification for deporting Venezuelan nationals under wartime enemy authority. It then conducted a joint military operation inside Venezuela with the Rodríguez government to kill the gang’s leader — the same government Washington recognized in March, after capturing Maduro. Both things happened. The deportees sent to CECOT on Tren de Aragua designations have no recourse.
Sources: CNN (US — NYSD charges, 200+ campaign deaths, compound location, Donovan statement, gang history); Bloomberg (US — Trump Truth Social announcement, SOUTHCOM quote); NBC News (US — Hegseth confirmation, compound strike, Alien Enemies Act context, July 2026 sanctions); Washington Post (US, centre-left — Venezuela government statement, joint operation confirmation, Trump campaign framing)
THE SPY TOOL THAT LAPSED
On Friday, for the first time in the nearly two-decade history of the program, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) expired. Congress failed to renew it. Then both chambers left Washington for recess. They are not scheduled to return until June 23.
Section 702 is the legal authority under which US intelligence agencies collect the electronic communications of foreign nationals located outside the United States without a warrant. It sweeps up Americans’ data in the process. The government says more than 60 percent of the president’s daily intelligence briefing relies on information collected under Section 702. It is used to monitor Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, and terrorist organizations. It expired while the United States is in an active war with Iran and negotiating a deal that may be signed this weekend.
The immediate cause of the failure was a standoff over Trump’s decision to appoint Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence. Pulte has no national security experience. Trump said on Truth Social he wants Pulte to execute the “immediate and needed downsizing” of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Department of Justice had at one point investigated whether Pulte and his team were interfering in ongoing investigations; Pulte has not been accused of any wrongdoing. House Democrats refused to back any extension of FISA unless Trump reversed the Pulte appointment. On Friday, Trump nominated Jay Clayton, the US attorney for the Southern District of New York, as permanent director of national intelligence — but Democratic leaders said that did not resolve their objections. The final vote on a three-week extension was 198-218, well short of the two-thirds majority needed under the fast-track process used. Three separate Senate efforts to pass short-term extensions by unanimous consent failed the same day.
The Brennan Center for Justice noted that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court re-certified Section 702 procedures in March 2026, locking in surveillance authority through March 2027. Those certifications remain valid even if the underlying statute expires. But if the statute has lapsed, intelligence agencies and the telecommunications companies they rely on face immediate legal uncertainty over what collection activities may continue. The result is a period of legal ambiguity over one of the intelligence community’s most heavily used tools — during a war.
🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Foreign governments and intelligence services that cooperate with US agencies under Five Eyes and other sharing arrangements are watching what a FISA lapse means for the reliability of American intelligence partnerships. The UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand depend on the continuity of those arrangements. A lapse driven by a domestic political dispute over a patronage appointment — not a principled reform debate — reads to allied intelligence services as institutional instability rather than a policy correction.
Congress allowed a foundational intelligence authority to lapse and then left town while the US is simultaneously managing an active war with Iran, a possible peace deal signing this weekend, ongoing Russian strikes in Ukraine, and a NATO summit in Ankara next week. That combination is what foreign press and foreign governments are registering.
🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: The government’s primary warrantless surveillance tool expired Friday because Congress could not agree on a patronage appointment. More than 60 percent of the president’s daily intelligence briefing depends on data collected under that authority. The FISA Court’s existing certifications provide a legal buffer through March 2027, but the underlying statute is gone, and the legal uncertainty that creates for intelligence collection and the companies forced to comply with it is real. Congress is on recess until June 23. A deal with Iran may be signed before they return.
Sources: NBC News live blog (US — vote count 198-218, Senate failures, Clayton nomination, Democrats reject Clayton, recess schedule, Pulte standoff); NPR (US — 60% intelligence briefing figure, program history, reform debate context); Axios (US — Pulte appointment, downsizing directive, bipartisan standoff); Brennan Center for Justice (nonpartisan legal institute — FISA Court March 2026 re-certification, March 2027 authority buffer, legal uncertainty analysis); Christian Science Monitor (US — 12:01 a.m. Saturday expiration, intelligence community alternatives)
WAR DAY 106 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,468 killed, 26,500+ injured (Iran Ministry of Health, via Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 3,696 killed, 11,413 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1) 🇮🇱 Israel: 26 killed, 7,791 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1)
🌍 Gulf states/Iraq: 131 killed — Iraq 118, Kuwait 7, Bahrain 3, Oman 3 (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1)
🇺🇸 US military: 13 killed, 381 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1)
🛢️ Brent crude: $87.33/barrel (OilPrice.com — up slightly overnight from $86.50; market holding on deal signal)
⛽ US national gas average: $4.09/gallon (AAA)
Sourcing note: All war casualty figures sourced to the Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1, 2026. Iran figure sourced to Iran’s Ministry of Health. Lebanon figure sourced to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health via Al Jazeera tracker. Tracker has not been updated since June 1; Lebanon and Gulf figures should be treated as floor estimates given strikes have continued. Methodology differs between sources; figures are not directly comparable.
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789
