The Rest of the World Report | May 11, 2026 — Evening Edition

The View From Everywhere Else

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BEIJING, NEW DELHI, AND THE QUESTION NOBODY IS ASKING OUT LOUD

On Wednesday, Donald Trump flies to Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping. On the same two days — May 14 and 15 — Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected in New Delhi for the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, where Russia’s Sergei Lavrov and the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Egypt will also be present. These are not two separate diplomatic events. They are two tracks of the same negotiation running simultaneously on opposite sides of the Asian continent. American coverage has noted the BRICS meeting in passing. It has not treated it as what it is.

Photo by Laurentiu Morariu on Unsplash

A regional source close to the negotiations told CNN that talks will “depend on the results of President Trump’s visit to Beijing,” and that Araghchi’s presence at the BRICS meeting “is important” precisely because the Saudi and Egyptian foreign ministers — who are facilitating backchannel dialogue with Washington — will be in the same room. China’s Wang Yi, who met Araghchi in Beijing last week, is expected to skip New Delhi citing scheduling conflicts, placing him in Beijing with Trump on both days instead. The two tracks are not parallel. They are interlocked.

Trump said Monday the ceasefire with Iran is on “massive life support.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman called US demands “unreasonable” and “one-sided,” while insisting Iran’s counter-proposal was “generous and responsible.” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, the lead negotiator at Islamabad, said his country is “prepared for every option” and warned that “a strategy of miscalculation and mistaken decisions will always produce mistaken results.” The gap between the two sides’ public positions has not narrowed since Sunday’s exchange of proposals. What has changed is the timeline: three days.

What Xi Jinping wants from the Beijing summit has been documented with unusual clarity by analysts and officials in the days before Trump’s arrival. The Center for Strategic and International Studies put it plainly in its pre-summit briefing: “During Trump’s trip to China, the United States will focus on the economy and Iran, while China will seek stability and progress on Taiwan.” Taiwan is not a sidebar to this meeting. It is China’s primary agenda item.

Trump confirmed the arms sale question himself on Monday. Asked about the $11 billion Taiwan arms sale package he approved in December, he told reporters: “President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion.” CBS News described the decision to raise the sale with Xi as “a concession no other US president has ever made and a violation of former president Ronald Reagan’s 1982 commitments to Taiwan.” China also wants Trump to change official US language on Taiwan from “does not support” independence to “opposes” independence. The shift may sound semantic. It is not: it would represent the first formal US step toward accepting China’s framing of the Taiwan question. Wang Yi told Secretary of State Rubio on April 30 that Taiwan is “the biggest point of risk” in the bilateral relationship, urging Washington to “keep its promise and make the right choices to open up new space for China-US cooperation.”

The South China Sea is moving in parallel. Satellite imagery analyzed by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies — a hawkish, pro-defense think tank whose sourcing on satellite data is not in dispute — confirms that China has erected a floating barrier at Scarborough Shoal and is constructing a large airbase on Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, with a runway long enough to support persistent air presence across the region. China has also issued airspace restrictions covering key approaches to the East China Sea and northern Taiwan Strait, without announcing drills or offering an explanation — a sustained readiness posture rather than a time-limited exercise. These moves began during the period of maximum American diplomatic distraction. Reuters obtained satellite imagery from April 10-11 confirming China deployed a 352-metre floating barrier at Scarborough’s entrance, with the Philippine coast guard identifying six Chinese maritime militia vessels inside the shoal — timed precisely to the weeks when US naval attention was concentrated on Hormuz.

The question of what Trump will give Xi to secure Chinese pressure on Tehran is the question the summit’s outcome will answer. Bonnie Glaser, a widely cited China analyst, told CNBC that any bargain granting Beijing a sphere of influence over Taiwan in exchange for concessions elsewhere “could embolden China to take more assertive steps to erode Taiwan’s autonomy.” Glaser is not predicting this will happen. She is describing what it would mean if it did. The distinction matters, but it is a narrower distinction than American coverage suggests.

🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Outside the United States, two things about this week are being covered with an intensity that does not match the American press. The first is the BRICS parallel track. India TV News and multiple Indian outlets report that Araghchi’s New Delhi visit signals Tehran’s push for multilateral engagement, using BRICS as the international legitimacy framework for any eventual agreement, with India, Russia, and the Global South as guarantors alongside China. That is Iran’s answer to the JCPOA problem: a deal embedded in a multilateral architecture that survives an American administration change. The second is Taiwan. Al Jazeera reported Monday that Trump confirmed to reporters he will raise the arms sale directly with Xi: “President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion.” Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has already responded, warning that “compromising with authoritarian regimes only sacrifices sovereignty and democracy.” Retired US Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery told AP that Taiwan will be “on the menu” when Trump and Xi sit down. The BRICS meeting is not happening at the same time as the Beijing summit by coincidence, and the Taiwan question is not a subtext of this summit. It is its spine.

🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: Trump goes to Beijing on Wednesday needing a deliverable on Iran. Xi arrives holding Iran’s economic lifeline, Taiwan on his agenda, an $11 billion arms sale approved in December that has not been delivered, and a South China Sea that has quietly expanded during America’s distraction. The ceasefire Trump says is on “massive life support” is also, simultaneously, the argument his administration is using to pause the constitutional 60-day war powers clock. What comes home from Beijing — on Iran, on Taiwan, on the South China Sea, on what was traded and what was not — will define not just this war but the decade of American foreign policy that follows it. The BRICS meeting in New Delhi will be running at the same time. American readers deserve to know it exists.

Sources: CNN live blog (US — regional source on Beijing dependence, Araghchi BRICS confirmed, “massive life support” quote, confirmed this session); CSIS pre-summit briefing (non-partisan think tank — China Taiwan agenda confirmed, May 8, confirmed this session); CBS News (US — $14 billion arms sale, language change demand, Reagan commitments, confirmed this session); CNBC (markets and business — Wang Yi “biggest point of risk” quote, Glaser analysis, Rubio call, confirmed this session); Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — Iranian FM spokesman quotes, Ghalibaf statement, confirmed this session); FDD / satellite imagery (Foundation for Defense of Democracies, hawkish pro-defense — Scarborough Shoal barrier, Antelope Reef airbase, airspace restrictions, confirmed this session); India TV News / ANI (India, editorially independent — Araghchi New Delhi confirmation, BRICS multilateral framing, confirmed this session); Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — Trump arms sale confirmation, Lai Ching-te warning, confirmed this session); AP via News4Jax (wire — Montgomery “on the menu” quote, Taiwan semiconductor leverage, confirmed this session); Reuters (wire — Scarborough Shoal 352m barrier, April 10-11 satellite imagery, Philippine coast guard confirmation, confirmed this session)

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THE WORLD’S LARGEST ENERGY SHOCK

On Monday morning, the CEO of the world’s largest oil company told investors the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has caused the biggest energy supply shock the world has ever experienced. The warning came on an earnings call. The same call reported that Saudi Aramco’s first-quarter profit rose nearly 26 percent to $33.6 billion — driven by the higher oil prices that the war and the closure have produced.

Amin Nasser, Aramco’s CEO, was direct: “The energy supply shock that began in the first quarter is the largest the world has ever experienced.” He said the oil market is losing 100 million barrels for every week the strait remains closed. The total net loss so far is 880 million barrels, partially offset by redirected pipelines and the release of strategic reserves — but those buffers are drawing down. Only 2-5 vessels cross the strait daily, compared to roughly 70 before the war. More than 600 ships are stranded in the Gulf. Roughly 20,000 seafarers remain trapped aboard them.

The timeline Nasser gave investors is stark. If the strait reopens today, the market will still take months to rebalance. If the disruption continues past mid-June, normalization will not arrive before 2027. That mid-June threshold is now five weeks away. The negotiations that might prevent it are stalled, the ceasefire is on “massive life support,” and the deal talks have just been deferred to whatever emerges from Beijing on May 15.

The profit figure sitting alongside that warning deserves attention. Aramco’s adjusted net income of $33.6 billion beat analyst expectations by a significant margin. Revenue rose 7 percent to $115.49 billion. The company approved a base dividend of $21.89 billion. Aramco is Saudi Arabia’s primary sovereign revenue engine, and its profit surge is a direct function of the oil price spike the war produced. The CEO of the company posting those numbers is also the person warning the world that the crisis causing them must end within weeks or the damage extends into 2027. That is not a contradiction he is required to resolve — he is a CEO reporting to investors, not a diplomat. But it is a fact American readers should hold alongside his warning.

The Aramco announcement also contained a detail that connects to this morning’s diesel story. Nasser said oil inventories are drawing down rapidly, particularly for products like gasoline and jet fuel, and warned that supplies “may reach critically low levels ahead of the summer driving and travel season.” That is the world’s largest oil company independently confirming the distillate inventory concern ROTWR reported this morning — using the same summer timeline and the same product categories.

🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Aramco’s earnings call was covered as major financial news across Gulf, Asian, and European business media. The Arab Gulf Business Insight and Free Malaysia Today both led with the 2027 normalization warning, framing Nasser’s comments as the most authoritative single statement on the war’s economic consequences to date. Shell’s CEO gave a similar warning last week. The pattern across major energy company earnings calls this quarter is consistent: the people who run the global energy system are telling investors, in formal legal filings, that the supply shock is historic and the recovery will be long. That is a different register than a government official or analyst saying the same thing. Corporate earnings disclosures carry legal weight. Nasser said what he said under those conditions.

🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: The world’s largest oil company reported record profits today on the same call it warned that the energy shock causing those profits may not resolve until 2027. The math is not complicated: Aramco made $33.6 billion in three months because oil is expensive. Oil is expensive because the strait is closed. The strait is closed because of a war the US started. American consumers are paying $4.52 at the pump and facing a diesel crunch heading into harvest season. American farmers and truckers will feel the July squeeze that ROTWR reported this morning. The profits from that squeeze are being reported, today, in Riyadh. The mid-June window Nasser identified — five weeks from now — is the last point at which a deal could prevent 2027 from being the year the energy shock becomes a years-long economic condition.

Sources: CNBC (markets and business — Nasser quotes, 100 million barrels/week figure, vessel count, confirmed this session); AGBI (Gulf business — 2-5 vessels daily, 880 million barrel net loss, mid-June threshold, confirmed this session); Investing.com / Reuters (wire — Q1 profit figures, gasoline/jet fuel inventory warning, confirmed this session); Free Malaysia Today / AFP (wire — international framing, Shell CEO parallel warning, confirmed this session)

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THE SECRET WAR WITHIN THE WAR

Throughout the weeks the UAE was publicly presenting itself as a victim of Iranian aggression — intercepting missiles, absorbing drone strikes, condemning Tehran in the strongest terms — it was also, covertly, striking Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing people familiar with the matter including American officials, that the UAE carried out direct military strikes against Iranian territory during the war, including an attack on an oil refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf in early April, around the time Trump announced the ceasefire.

The strikes, which Abu Dhabi has not publicly acknowledged, triggered a large fire that knocked much of the Lavan refinery’s capacity offline for months. Iran confirmed at the time that the refinery had been struck in what it called “an enemy attack” and responded with a barrage of missile and drone strikes against the UAE. Those retaliatory strikes were reported and condemned internationally as unprovoked Iranian aggression. They were not unprovoked. The UAE had just hit an Iranian oil facility.

The scale of the UAE’s covert involvement goes beyond a single strike. Bloomberg reported as far back as March 24 that Saudi Arabia and the UAE had taken steps toward joining the Iran war — a report that at the time was framed as prospective. The Lavan Island strike, now confirmed by the WSJ with American official sourcing, puts a specific confirmed action behind what Bloomberg was signaling two months ago. Iran, which knew it had been struck from UAE territory, has been retaliating against a country that publicly denied any offensive role.

The disclosure reframes the Gulf picture entirely. The UAE has been receiving international sympathy — and material US military support — as a victim of Iranian attacks throughout this conflict. It was simultaneously an aggressor. The GCC states have presented a unified front of victimhood. The front was not unified, and it was not entirely victimhood.

The timing of the WSJ disclosure is significant. It lands the day before Trump flies to Beijing, where the Gulf states’ role in any eventual settlement will be a central discussion point. It lands as Iran’s FM Araghchi heads to the BRICS meeting in New Delhi, where the terms of any multilateral guarantorship of a deal will be negotiated. And it lands at the moment Iran has told US mediators that “security in Lebanon and the region” is a precondition for any agreement — a demand that now carries a sharper edge given what Tehran has known throughout.

🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: The WSJ disclosure has received significant coverage in Turkish, regional Arab, and Iranian media. Türkiye Today, drawing on Anadolu Agency, framed the revelation as confirmation of what Iran had alleged throughout the conflict — that the UAE was an active belligerent presenting itself as a victim. That framing, which Western outlets did not corroborate when Tehran first made it, is now sourced to the Wall Street Journal and American officials. The credibility gap between what the Gulf states have said publicly and what they have done privately is now on the record. How Iran uses that record in the BRICS negotiations in New Delhi this week is the question regional analysts are asking tonight.

🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: The UAE received US military protection throughout this war as a victim of Iranian attacks. It was also hitting Iran. American weapons, American air defense systems, and American diplomatic support were extended to a country conducting covert offensive operations it never disclosed. That is not the UAE’s war. It is the war the US is also fighting, through a Gulf state proxy whose combatant role was never disclosed to the American public. The diplomacy heading into Beijing and New Delhi this week involves countries whose actual roles in this war are only now coming into focus.

Sources: Türkiye Today / Anadolu Agency (Turkey, state-affiliated — WSJ reporting on Lavan Island strike, Abu Dhabi non-acknowledgment, confirmed this session); Bloomberg (markets and business — UAE/Saudi steps toward joining war, March 24, confirmed this session)

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ALSO DEVELOPING — for the curious:

War Powers: The Trump administration is simultaneously arguing that the ceasefire pauses the 60-day constitutional clock under the War Powers Resolution and that the ceasefire is on “massive life support.” Those two claims cannot both be true. The Senate has rejected at least six war powers resolutions since February 28. Senator Susan Collins voted for the resolution for the first time on April 30 — the first Republican to do so — saying “the deadline is not a suggestion; it is a requirement.” Senator Lisa Murkowski has given the White House until this Friday to present a credible war plan before she introduces her own authorization measure. The war funding request has not arrived. Senate Republicans say privately it will be the real vote. — CNN Politics; Time

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NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,636+ killed (HRANA floor estimate — FROZEN since April 7; no updated HRANA report this session; Iranian Health Ministry figure as of May 5: 3,468 — methodology differs)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 2,700+ killed and rising (Lebanese Ministry of Public Health — 75 killed in the 48 hours prior to Monday; figure updating daily)
🇮🇱 Israel: At least 26 killed, 7,791 wounded (Al Jazeera live tracker, as of May 5)
🌍 Gulf states: At least 28 killed (Al Jazeera live tracker — figure stable, no update this session)
🇺🇸 US military: 14 KIA confirmed (GlobalSecurity.org, May 7)
🛢️ Brent crude: $104.70/barrel (OilPrice.com, editor-confirmed)
⛽ US gas: $4.52/gallon national average (AAA, editor-confirmed)

Sourcing note: Iran casualties sourced to HRANA (US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency), a floor estimate. Iranian Health Ministry figure cited separately. Methodology differs; figures should not be treated as directly comparable.

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WATCH LIST

🔴 Beijing summit, May 14-15. Trump and Xi. Taiwan language change on the table. $11 billion arms sale approved in December. China’s South China Sea expansion confirmed by satellite imagery. The summit outcome will determine whether there is an Iran deal framework, what was traded to get it, and whether Taiwan’s status is among the things traded. The most consequential 48 hours of the war.

🔴 BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, New Delhi, May 14-15. Running simultaneously with Beijing. Araghchi, Lavrov, Saudi FM, Egyptian FM all expected. This is Iran’s multilateral guarantorship track — the architecture of any eventual agreement that does not depend solely on Washington. American coverage has largely missed it. Watch for any joint statement language on Hormuz or Iran.

🟡 Murkowski’s deadline. The Alaska Republican gave the White House one week to present a credible war plan. That week expires Friday. Watch for whether she introduces her authorization measure and whether any additional Republicans join her.

🟡 South China Sea: Antelope Reef airbase. Construction confirmed by satellite imagery, timed to the period of American diplomatic distraction. Not yet a crisis — but a runway being built is harder to un-build than a claim being made. Watch for any US or Philippine response to the construction.

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“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789