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VENEZUELA
The confirmed death toll from Wednesday evening’s twin earthquakes is at least 235, with 4,300 injured, according to Venezuela’s Health Minister Carlos Alvarado. That is up from the 188 killed and 1,520 injured we reported Thursday evening. The toll is expected to rise. Rescue teams are still working through the rubble of collapsed buildings in Caracas, La Guaira, and Catia la Mar. People are still being pulled out alive.
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez declared a nationwide state of emergency Thursday. Caracas’s main international airport closed after structural damage was found in the terminal roof, complicating aid delivery. Schools are closed for the rest of the week. Residents near weakened structures have been told to stay outside. More than 138 aftershocks have followed the original doublet.
A website created to help families track missing people listed more than 46,000 names as of Friday morning — a figure not confirmed by officials, but one that reflects the scale of families who cannot account for relatives in the rubble or the communication blackout. The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates a 40% probability the final death toll will exceed 10,000. Its predictive model has issued a red alert, warning that “High casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread.”
Venezuela’s Maiquetía “Simón Bolívar” airport — which handles most international aid arrivals — is closed due to structural damage to the terminal roof, forcing aid flights to reroute to alternative landing sites. Venezuela has one of the most restricted media landscapes in the world — more than 200 websites are blocked, including local and international news sites, social media platforms, and VPN tools — complicating the flow of information to families abroad desperately trying to locate relatives.
Before the earthquakes struck, 8 million of Venezuela’s 28 million people were already in need of humanitarian assistance. Hospitals were already short of equipment and medication. Power outages were already frequent.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: The death toll in Venezuela has risen to at least 235 overnight and is expected to keep climbing. The main airport is closed. More than 46,000 names are listed on a missing persons website. US rescue teams are deploying into a country Washington has sanctioned, isolated, and whose people it has been deporting. The USGS says there is a 40% chance more than 10,000 people are dead. Rescue teams are still pulling survivors from the rubble.
Sources: CNN live blog (US — 235 killed/4,300 injured confirmed, Health Minister Alvarado named, airport closure confirmed, state of emergency confirmed, June 26 0012 ET update); NPR (US — Rodríguez “disaster zone” confirmed, medical staff reporting order confirmed, diplomatic backdrop confirmed, Maduro arrest context confirmed, June 26 0241 ET); NBC News live blog (US — 46,000 missing website figure confirmed as unverified, USGS 40% chance 10,000+ confirmed, airport closure confirmed, aftershocks 138 confirmed, June 26); Yahoo / Reuters wire (wire — toll breakdown La Guaira/Caracas confirmed, BBC people heard calling from rubble confirmed, rescue operations Friday confirmed, June 26 0849 UTC)
EBOLA
A modelling study published Friday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases — the most prestigious infectious disease journal in the world — estimates a 69.3% probability that Ebola will reach South Sudan within 12 weeks.
The current outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, has recorded 1,048 confirmed cases and 267 deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo as of June 22. Uganda already has 20 confirmed cases including two deaths and five healthcare worker infections. The outbreak began spreading undetected in early April 2026 — six weeks before the WHO identified it and declared a public health emergency of international concern on May 15.
South Sudan is next. The Lancet study, led by WHO researchers, estimates a nearly 7-in-10 probability that at least one case will arrive there within the 12-week modelling window. South Sudan has some of the weakest public health infrastructure in the region, with documented gaps in case management, contact tracing, safe burial practices, and border surveillance. If the outbreak reaches South Sudan under the study’s central scenario, projections show it could reach 8,200 cumulative cases by September.
There is no approved vaccine for the Bundibugyo strain. The vaccines used in previous outbreaks — the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine that helped contain the 2018-2020 DRC epidemic — target a different strain of the virus and do not provide protection against Bundibugyo. Prevention and containment depend entirely on isolation, contact tracing, and safe burial.
This week, France confirmed an imported Ebola case — a physician who had been treating patients in the DRC. WHO’s Emergencies Director for Africa, Dr. Marie Rosaline Belizaire, who co-authored the Lancet study, said preparedness efforts should focus urgently on South Sudan. “Spillover is no longer hypothetical,” the study states.
The dismantling of USAID and the US withdrawal from WHO have directly hampered detection and response capacity in the DRC and Uganda — the CDC did not learn of the outbreak until nine days after the WHO first received alerts.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: A peer-reviewed WHO study published today in The Lancet gives a 70% chance that Ebola reaches South Sudan within three months. There is no vaccine for this strain. South Sudan has some of the weakest public health infrastructure on the continent. The outbreak began spreading six weeks before anyone detected it. The dismantling of USAID and the US withdrawal from WHO directly contributed to that delay. This is a story receiving almost no coverage in American media.
Sources: The Lancet Infectious Diseases — WHO modelling study (primary — 69.3% South Sudan probability confirmed, Uganda 20 cases/two deaths confirmed, DRC 1,048/267 confirmed, June 22 data anchor, June 26 published); Euronews (Europe — Bundibugyo no-vaccine confirmation, South Sudan infrastructure gaps confirmed, Belizaire “most urgent priority” confirmed, June 26); Medical Xpress (US — 94.2% Uganda importation probability confirmed, healthcare worker infections confirmed, Mahagi-Goli-Paidha corridor confirmed, “spillover is no longer hypothetical” quote confirmed, June 26); Yahoo / Reuters (wire — France imported case confirmed, 8,200 cases September projection confirmed, “no vaccine” confirmed, June 26); CNN (US — USAID cuts confirmed, all USAID DRC team members fired confirmed, WHO funding gap confirmed, CDC nine days delay confirmed, “everything stalled” quote, May 22 2026); STAT News (US — HHS funding DRC dropped from $33M to under $10M confirmed, USAID $715M to $67M drop confirmed, IRC scale-back from five to two health zones confirmed, “silent but dangerous drift” quote, May 19 2026); NPR (US — first major outbreak after drastic health aid cuts confirmed, no vaccine confirmed, spreading undetected confirmed, May 24 2026)
AL OTRO LADO
Thursday’s edition covered three of the four Supreme Court decisions issued that day. The fourth — Mullin v. Al Otro Lado — is the one that closes the door on asylum seekers at the southern border.
The ruling, written by Justice Alito, addressed a straightforward question: when a migrant reaches the US-Mexico border but is turned away by CBP before physically crossing, have they “arrived in the United States” for the purpose of applying for asylum? The Ninth Circuit said yes. The Supreme Court said no. “In ordinary speech, no one would say that a person ‘arrives in’ a place before the person enters that place,” Alito wrote. “A running back does not arrive in the end zone when he reaches the 1-yard line.” A migrant who reaches the border and is turned back has not arrived in the United States. They cannot apply for asylum. They can be metered, indefinitely, on the Mexican side.
The ruling validates the CBP metering policy — first introduced under Obama, dramatically expanded under Trump — under which Border Patrol officers limit the number of asylum seekers admitted for processing at any given time. Migrants who arrive during a closed window are turned back into Mexico to wait. Under Al Otro Lado, those migrants have no legal right to asylum processing. The court said Congress could change the law if it wanted to. It did not.
Combined with the same day’s Mullin v. Doe — which rules that courts cannot review presidential decisions to terminate Temporary Protected Status — Thursday’s Court effectively closed the asylum system from two directions simultaneously. The front door: migrants at the border cannot claim the right to be admitted to apply. The side door: people already legally present under TPS can have that status stripped without judicial review. The same six justices. The same day.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: The Supreme Court ruled Thursday that a person standing at the US-Mexico border asking for asylum has not arrived in the United States. They cannot apply. They can be sent back. Combined with the TPS ruling from the same day, the Court has now made it significantly harder to seek protection in the United States whether you are trying to enter or already legally present. This is the second of four decisions from Thursday that ROTWR is reporting. The first three ran in last night’s edition.
Sources: LII / Cornell Law — Mullin v. Al Otro Lado (primary — Alito majority opinion confirmed, “arrives in” ruling verbatim, running back analogy confirmed, Sotomayor dissent confirmed, full text); Western Journal / AP (US — Al Otro Lado ruling confirmed, metering policy confirmed, Alito “1-yard line” confirmed, TPS/Al Otro Lado combined framing confirmed, June 25); Center for Immigration Studies (US, restrictionist-leaning think tank — four opinions June 25 confirmed, Al Otro Lado distinct from Doe confirmed, birthright citizenship only immigration case remaining confirmed, June 25 — note CIS orientation, used for factual confirmation only)
WAR DAY 119 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,468 killed, 26,500+ injured (Iran Ministry of Health, via Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 4,230 killed, 12,179 injured (Lebanon Ministry of Public Health, updated June 25 via CBS News live blog)
🇮🇱 Israel: 35+ killed (Israeli news source via Time, June 21 — tracker frozen June 10)
🌍 Gulf states/Iraq: 131 killed — Iraq 118, Kuwait 7, Bahrain 3, Oman 3 (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🇺🇸 US military: 13 killed, 381 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10)
🛢️ Brent crude: $72.55/barrel (OilPrice.com — essentially flat after Thursday’s vessel-strike jump; markets stabilized)
⛽ US national gas average: $3.90/gallon (AAA — down $0.66 from the May 21 peak of $4.56)
Sourcing note: All war casualty figures sourced to the Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 10, 2026, except Lebanon. Lebanon updated to 4,230 killed, 12,179 injured per Lebanon Ministry of Public Health, confirmed June 25. All figures are floor estimates. Methodology differs between sources; figures are not directly comparable.
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789
