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THE DEAL TRUMP SAYS IS ALMOST SIGNED
As of Friday morning, the United States and Iran have not signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war. But for the first time since the conflict began on February 28, both sides are describing the same document.
Trump said Thursday that a signing ceremony could happen as early as Saturday or Monday, likely in Europe. He said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “as soon as a deal is signed.” Iran International’s live blog reported the MoU’s terms Friday morning, citing a diplomat from one of the mediating countries and a US official: the Strait reopens immediately without tolls; sanctions relief is tied to Iranian compliance; the ceasefire extends 60 days including in Lebanon; and nuclear talks begin on a framework for Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile under a second, more detailed accord. Trump acknowledged Thursday that the MoU only “conceptually” addresses the nuclear material question — the document sets the stage for subsequent talks, it does not require Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile upfront.
Iran has not confirmed the signing. Tasnim, the semi-official news agency linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has not confirmed the text is finalized. An Iranian parliament official told reporters Friday that both the IRGC and Iran’s diplomatic negotiators answer to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — a statement widely read as a message to Western governments hoping to detect a split between Iran’s military and diplomatic wings. The Times of Israel reported Thursday that an Israeli source said Iran’s negotiators “do not have signing rights” without the Supreme Leader’s approval, and that there are no indications Khamenei has said yes.
Netanyahu spoke with Trump by phone Thursday. His office confirmed the call and described Netanyahu’s tone as “rather optimistic.” Netanyahu also said publicly that Israel is “not a party” to the emerging deal. CNN tallied at least 38 times — in social media posts, public appearances, and phone calls with media — that Trump has claimed a deal was imminent or that Iran was desperate to cut one, dating to before the ceasefire. Global stock markets surged Friday morning on the latest signals. Brent crude fell to $86.50 — down from $96.14 three weeks ago — reflecting the market’s reading of the probability that the strait reopens.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: A signing could happen this weekend, in which case the Strait of Hormuz reopens and gas prices fall further. It could also not happen, as it has not happened 38 times before. The gap that matters: Trump says the deal is done; Iran’s Supreme Leader has not said yes. Watch for an Iranian confirmation — or the absence of one — before Friday’s close.
Sources: Iran International live blog (Iran/opposition-aligned, Saudi-connected — MoU terms, Friday morning); The Hill (US — signing location, Oval Office remarks); CNN (US — 38 prior claims tally, scope and methodology); Times of Israel (Israel, centre-right — Netanyahu call, Israeli source on signing rights, Khamenei approval); Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — Tasnim non-confirmation, ceasefire extension terms)
UKRAINE MARKS RUSSIA DAY WITH FIRE
Today is Russia Day — June 12, Russia’s national holiday. Ukraine chose it for one of its most ambitious long-range drone campaigns of the war.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones struck multiple petrochemical and energy facilities across Russia, reaching as far as 1,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The Nizhnekamskneftekhim synthetic rubber plant in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan — one of the largest petrochemical enterprises in Eastern Europe, owned by Sibur — was hit and caught fire. The Taneco oil refinery in the same city was struck; two crude distillation units and a tank farm sustained damage, with large fires and thick black smoke visible in footage. The Togliatti Kauchuk petrochemical plant in Samara Oblast was also hit. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin reported seven drones intercepted over the capital. A drone struck a residential building in Nizhnekamsk, injuring three people. The city’s mayor canceled all Russia Day celebrations.
Russia’s Defense Ministry reported 231 Ukrainian drones intercepted overnight. Ukraine’s military had not officially commented as of Friday morning — the reports are sourced to Russian regional officials and Telegram monitoring channels and should be treated as developing until wire confirmation arrives. Ukraine has carried out 31 attacks on Russian oil and energy facilities in May alone. Russian crude production fell to 9.009 million barrels per day in May, the lowest level in a year, nearly 690,000 barrels below its OPEC+ target.
Washington’s attention is on Tehran. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled since Putin dismissed Zelenskyy’s overtures on June 5. Ukraine is doing what it has consistently done when diplomatic momentum falters: hitting what it can reach.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Ukraine struck deep into Russia on Russia’s national holiday, targeting the energy infrastructure that funds the war. The attacks are unconfirmed by Ukraine but corroborated by Russian regional officials. Meanwhile the US peace process for Ukraine has gone quiet — Trump’s focus is Iran, and Russia knows it.
Sources: Kyiv Independent (Ukraine — overnight strikes, NKNK plant, residential building, caveat on Telegram sourcing); Kyiv Post (Ukraine — Taneco refinery damage, Russia Day cancellation, 231 drones intercepted, May oil production figures, 31 prior attacks); Hvylya.net (Ukraine — plant locations, distance from border)
BOLIVIA’S PRESIDENT SENDS IN THE MILITARY
Bolivia’s conservative President Rodrigo Paz authorized military force against anti-government protesters on June 10, two days after the legislature passed a law granting him that power. The protests have now run for more than 40 consecutive days.
The movement began in early May over a law allowing land mortgages, spread after Paz repealed the law, and has since grown into a broad demand for his resignation. Miners, teachers, transport workers, Indigenous communities, and farmers have all joined. Road blockades have placed La Paz under effective siege, cutting off fuel, food, and medical supplies. Thousands queued for hours last week to buy chicken. From May 1 through June 2, Bolivia’s independent public ombudsman documented 10 deaths, 37 injuries, and 365 arrests — the government disputes the cause of seven of the deaths. Clashes in Cochabamba on June 8 involved firecrackers, stones, and tear gas. Protesters threatened to seize military and police facilities in the Cochabamba Tropics region following passage of the emergency powers law.
Paz has labeled the movement “narco-terrorism,” citing no publicly presented evidence. The independent ombudsman has not applied that characterization. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth framed the protests differently still: on June 4, he posted on social media that the US would “reject all attempts to overthrow the legitimate government” of Paz, treating a popular economic protest movement as a coup attempt. Bolivia is in the midst of what analysts describe as its worst economic crisis in four decades, driven by declining energy production and a shortage of US dollars.
Bolivia holds some of the world’s largest lithium reserves. The protests are directly threatening development of those reserves at a moment when the global energy transition depends on lithium supply.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: The US has explicitly backed Paz and framed his opponents as regime-change actors. The people in the streets are miners, teachers, and Indigenous communities demanding economic relief. Hegseth’s statement puts Washington on the side of a government deploying its military against its own citizens — in a country sitting on critical minerals the US needs.
Sources: Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — military authorization June 10, legislature vote June 7, Hegseth statement June 4); ABC News/AP (US wire — ombudsman figures, Cochabamba clashes, Paz signing); AFP/BSS News (June 4 — Paz “narco-terrorism” characterization, worst crisis in 40 years); UPI (June 9 — military base threats, Cochabamba Tropics); ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data — protest event data, escalation analysis)
ALSO DEVELOPING — Northern Ireland: The street violence that erupted in Belfast on June 9 and 10 — following the arrest of a Sudanese asylum seeker charged with attempted murder in a knife attack — has not escalated further. A smaller protest took place in east Belfast on Thursday June 11, with Translink suspending bus services as a precaution. No major new incidents were reported overnight. Far-right figures including Tommy Robinson and Nigel Farage had amplified calls for demonstrations following the attack; Robinson had called for Thursday protests specifically. The smaller turnout Thursday suggests the peak violence of June 9-10 has not been sustained, though police remain on heightened alert.
Sources: Wikipedia/2026 Northern Ireland riots (June 11 protest, Translink suspension); PBS NewsHour (stabbing context, Robinson/Musk amplification); NPR (victim injuries, suspect charges, Common Travel Area political dimension)
WAR DAY 105 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,468 killed, 26,500+ injured (Iran Ministry of Health, via Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 3,696 killed, 11,413 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1)
🇮🇱 Israel: 26 killed, 7,791 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1)
🌍 Gulf states/Iraq: 131 killed — Iraq 118, Kuwait 7, Bahrain 3, Oman 3 (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1)
🇺🇸 US military: 13 killed, 381 injured (Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1)
🛢️ Brent crude: $86.50/barrel (OilPrice.com — down from $89.10 Thursday, $96.14 three weeks ago; market pricing in Iran deal probability)
⛽ US national gas average: $4.11/gallon (AAA)
Sourcing note: All war casualty figures sourced to the Al Jazeera live tracker, last updated June 1, 2026. Iran figure sourced to Iran’s Ministry of Health. Figures should not be treated as directly comparable across countries; methodologies differ. Strikes in Lebanon continued through at least June 9; Lebanon and Israel figures have not been updated since June 1.
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789
