The Rest of the World Report | April 29, 2026 — Morning Edition
Iran War & Beyond
Weekday morning and evening editions. Saturdays once. Good news on Sundays. All sources labeled.
1. THE US IS THREATENING TO WITHHOLD HIV MEDICATION FROM 1.3 MILLION ZAMBIANS. THE PRICE IS COPPER.
In mid-March, the New York Times obtained a leaked State Department memo prepared for Secretary of State Marco Rubio by the department’s Africa Bureau. Its central argument was not dressed up in diplomatic language. “We will only secure our priorities,” the memo said, “by demonstrating willingness to publicly take support away from Zambia on a massive scale.” The priorities in question are copper, cobalt, and lithium. The support being threatened is the HIV medication that 1.3 million Zambians depend on to stay alive.
The memo describes a negotiating strategy in which the United States would condition the continuation of PEPFAR — the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, a program that has funded antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa since the George W. Bush administration — on Zambia signing a bilateral agreement granting US companies preferential access to its mineral reserves. The deadline the memo set for reaching agreement was April 1. It has passed without a deal. The administration is now considering whether to “significantly cut assistance” as soon as May.
The proposed agreement, as described in a draft Memorandum of Understanding obtained and published by health advocacy organization Health GAP, is structured to offer Zambia $1 billion in health funding over five years. That figure is less than half of what Zambia received before Trump took office — and $488 million less than the $1.5 billion the US first pledged to Zambia’s former Health Minister in November 2025. In exchange, Zambia would be required to hire 40,000 new health workers over five years — a 50 percent increase over the country’s current total health workforce — increase its own health spending by $400 million, open its copper, cobalt, and lithium mines to US company access, and share citizens’ health data with the US government for 10 years and biological specimens for 25 years. A termination clause in the draft MOU states the entire agreement is voided if Zambia fails to reach a bilateral minerals compact by the April 1 deadline. That deadline has passed. The compact has not been signed.
Zambia is not an incidental target. It is Africa’s second-largest copper producer. Copper accounts for approximately 70 percent of its export earnings. Zambia sits on deposits of cobalt, graphite, and lithium that are central to electric vehicle batteries, semiconductor manufacturing, and the green energy transition. China has dominated Zambian mining for decades — operating through deals that Zambian activists, US officials, and mining industry analysts have all described as exploitative, opaque, and structured to move unprocessed ore to Chinese smelters rather than building Zambian industrial capacity. The Trump administration’s stated goal — to redirect critical minerals west rather than east — is not unreasonable as a strategic objective. The mechanism chosen to achieve it is the question.
Zambia is not alone in resisting. Zimbabwe rejected similar demands, citing data and biological sample sharing requirements as unacceptable sovereignty violations. Kenya took its agreement to court after a consumer advocacy group challenged data-sharing provisions — a Kenyan court subsequently suspended the agreement. Health activists in Zambia obtained and published draft copies of their country’s MOU specifically to expose the pressure being applied and the conditions being demanded. Oxfam described the administration’s approach as “turning humanitarian assistance into a bargaining chip” and warned that fast-tracking mining expansions under coercive conditions “exacerbates governance challenges, weakens environmental safeguards, and heightens risks to human rights.” The State Department, when asked about the leaked memo by the New York Times, declined to comment on “purportedly leaked documents or on deliberative diplomatic discussions.” Its public framing, delivered in a March 24 address by the Africa Bureau, was that African governments “love” the new approach because it offers “ownership” and moves away from “an infantilizing NGO industrial complex.”
Julius Kachidza, a 56-year-old HIV advocate in Lusaka, put the human stakes directly: “If this agreement is not signed, if the funding is not here for the next five years, government has got no capacity to respond to that immediate impact.” The 1.3 million Zambians receiving daily antiretroviral treatment through PEPFAR cannot stop their medication without severe health consequences. Antiretroviral therapy requires uninterrupted continuity to remain effective; gaps in treatment allow HIV to replicate and develop drug resistance. The memo’s authors understood this. They proposed it anyway.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: PEPFAR was created under George W. Bush. It is one of the most cost-effective public health interventions in American foreign policy history — credited with saving more than 25 million lives since 2003. The Trump administration is now using it as leverage to extract mineral concessions from one of the world’s poorest countries. The minerals being demanded — copper, cobalt, lithium — are the same ones the administration says it needs to win the competition with China for the green energy transition and semiconductor supply chains. American readers should understand that the instrument being deployed to secure those minerals is the threat to let 1.3 million people’s medication run out. That is not a characterization of the policy. It is what the leaked memo says.
Sources: New York Times via Democracy Now (wire — original memo reporting, 1.3 million figure, May cutoff threat, confirmed this session); Capital and Main (US, investigative — Owen Mulenga quote, full MOU structure, Zimbabwe and Kenya resistance, data-sharing terms, confirmed this session); Health GAP (health advocacy — draft MOU text, $488M reduction, 40,000 health worker requirement, termination clause, 25-year specimen sharing — labeled advocacy source, MOU text is primary); Oxfam America (advocacy — “bargaining chip” quote, confirmed this session — labeled); US State Department (primary source — Africa Bureau March 24 address, “love this new approach” framing, confirmed this session); TIME (US — Zambia copper context, 70% export earnings figure, Kachidza quote, confirmed this session); Mining Digital (industry — $1.012B vs $1.5B comparison, Zambia health budget context, confirmed this session)
2. TODAY IS DAY 60. FRIDAY IS THE LEGAL DEADLINE. THE ADMINISTRATION HAS DONE NOTHING.
The United States military campaign against Iran began on February 28. The Trump administration formally notified Congress on March 2, triggering the 60-day clock under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. That clock reaches its statutory limit on May 1 — Friday. By the law’s plain text, the president must obtain congressional authorization by that date or begin withdrawing forces.
Today, Wednesday April 29, marks 60 days from the first strikes. Legal scholars disagree on which date governs — some cite the date hostilities began, others the date of formal congressional notification. The administration and most sources use May 1. Either way, the window between today and Friday is the last interval in which the legal requirement to act is unambiguous. The administration has given no public indication it plans to do anything.
No Authorization for Use of Military Force has been introduced by the White House. No supplemental appropriations request has been filed. No 30-day extension certification has been submitted to Congress. No Republican leadership meeting on authorization has been announced. At the White House on April 23, Trump told reporters he would not be pressured by timelines. Vance has called the law “fundamentally a fake and unconstitutional law.” The message from the executive branch is consistent: the War Powers Resolution does not apply, and Friday is a date on the calendar, not a legal deadline.
Congress is preparing to test that position. Senator Adam Schiff of California told TIME he plans to force a sixth War Powers Resolution vote this week, timed to coincide with the deadline. Senate Democrats have forced five previous votes — all failed, most along party lines. The fifth failed, defeated 51-46 on April 23. Democrats intend to keep forcing votes, betting that the legal deadline changes the Republican calculus. So far, the evidence suggests it may not. Representative Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, was direct in his assessment: “I don’t think there’s any particular significance to April 29 in the minds of the Trump administration. I see no reason to expect that the Trump administration is going to honor that deadline in any way at this point.”
The Republican position is nuanced and matters. Most Republicans have not endorsed the view that the War Powers Resolution is fake — they have simply declined to enforce it while the ceasefire holds and negotiations continue. That is a different posture. Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina has said publicly the operation should not continue past 60 days without authorization. Senator John Curtis wrote that he would not support ongoing military action beyond 60 days without congressional approval. Senator Susan Collins told CNN she expects Trump to invoke the law’s 30-day extension rather than seek an AUMF. That extension is legally intended for safe troop withdrawal — not continued combat operations. Legal scholars, including Colorado Law professor Maryam Jamshidi, note that to claim the extension, the president must certify in writing to Congress that continued force is a result of “unavoidable military necessity.” No such certification has been filed.
What happens if Friday passes without action? The honest answer, confirmed by multiple legal scholars and congressional sources this session, is: probably nothing immediately. No president has ever been forced to end a military operation under the War Powers Resolution. Courts have historically declined to adjudicate disputes over the law when members of Congress bring suit. Democrats exploring a lawsuit acknowledge it is likely to face the same barriers. The law’s enforcement mechanism is political, not judicial — which means its efficacy depends entirely on whether Congress is willing to use it. Five votes have answered that question in the negative. Friday may answer it again. The question is whether any Republicans cross over when the abstract becomes concrete.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: The war has cost nearly $30 billion by current estimates. The administration is expected to seek $80 to $100 billion in supplemental funding — money Congress has not been asked to authorize. Brent crude is at $114.64 this morning, its highest since June 2022. Gas is above $4.10 and climbing. The legal authority to fight this war expires Friday under any reasonable reading of the statute. The administration plans to ignore that deadline, the vice president has called the law fake, and the Republican majority has so far declined to disagree. Friday will test whether that holds when the deadline is no longer hypothetical.
Sources: TIME (US — Schiff sixth vote plan, Democrats lawsuit discussions, March 2 notification date, confirmed this session); TIME (US — Tillis, Curtis, Bacon quotes, $30B cost, $80-100B supplemental, confirmed this session); CNN (US confirmation — April 29 vs May 1 legal debate, Collins quote, 30-day extension mechanics, confirmed this session); Military.com via AP (wire — Duckworth quote, Kaine quote, no enforcement mechanism framing, confirmed this session); MS Now (US — Adam Smith quote, Republican reasoning, fifth vote 46-51, confirmed this session); Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent — international framing, confirmed this session)
3. BRENT HIT $114.64 THIS MORNING. IT HAS GAINED EVERY SINGLE DAY FOR EIGHT DAYS.
Brent crude opened Wednesday at $114.64 per barrel — its highest level since June 2022, and the eighth consecutive session of gains. The price has risen more than 30 percent since the ceasefire was announced on April 8, when markets briefly rallied on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. It did not reopen. The dual blockade — the US Navy blocking Iranian ports, Iran blocking the Gulf — has reduced shipping through the strait to near zero. Six ships attempted to cross on Tuesday morning per MarineTraffic, down from 130 per day before the war. The IEA has called the disruption the largest energy supply shock on record.
Gas prices at the pump have not yet fully reflected the Brent surge. The EIA weekly figure for the week ending April 27 was $4.123 per gallon — corroborated by Forbes at just over $4.11 as of yesterday morning, both compiled before today’s move to $114. The lag between crude and retail is typically two to three weeks, which means what Brent does this week shows up at the station in mid-May. The trajectory is unambiguous: Brent has climbed from $66 before the war to $114.64 this morning — a 74 percent increase in 60 days.
Two new developments are pressing on the price simultaneously. The first is the UAE’s OPEC exit, effective Friday May 1, which removes production discipline from the cartel’s third-largest member and signals further fragmentation of the coordinated supply management that has historically provided a floor for oil markets. In the near term, the exit is bearish on paper — more UAE production theoretically means more supply — but the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the UAE cannot ship what it produces. The bearish logic applies only when the strait reopens. Until then, the exit is a signal about market structure, not a supply solution.
The second is a reported US escalation confirmed in Trading Economics’ market analysis this morning: Washington is considering sanctions on Chinese refiners that have been purchasing Iranian oil through alternative channels since the blockade began. China’s so-called teapot refiners — independent, smaller refineries that process Iranian crude outside the major state companies — have been exposed to the blockade only since mid-April, when US enforcement tightened. Threatening to sanction those refiners directly introduces China as an active party to the economic pressure campaign in a way that has not previously been explicit, and carries significant implications for US-China relations at a moment when Trump is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15.
The financial markets are watching all of it with a mixture of fear and dislocation. The same S&P 500 that closed at a record high on Monday fell 0.49 percent on Tuesday as the Brent surge and the UAE OPEC exit hit sentiment. The Nasdaq fell 0.9 percent. Both indices remain near historic highs driven by megacap technology earnings — but the distance between what Wall Street is experiencing and what Main Street is paying at the pump is widening with every session. Gas stocks have drawn down for ten or more consecutive weeks. Gasoline futures for New York Harbor delivery are at their highest since June 2022. There is no supply solution available until the war ends.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Brent at $114.64 is not yet fully at your gas station. It will be in two to three weeks. The pump price trajectory since February 28 — from $2.98 to over $4.10 and climbing — is a direct function of a closed strait and a stalled diplomatic process. The proposed deal on the table would reopen Hormuz in Phase 2. The administration has rejected it because Phase 3 — the nuclear question — comes last. The choice embedded in that rejection is between cheaper gas sooner and nuclear certainty later. American families paying $4.10 or more per gallon are living in the gap between those two positions.
Sources: Trading Economics (market data — Brent $114.64, eighth consecutive session, highest since June 2022, Chinese refiner sanctions detail, confirmed this session); EIA/FRED (US government primary source — $4.123/gallon week ending April 27, confirmed this session); Forbes (US business — $4.11 corroboration, confirmed this session); CBS News via MarineTraffic (live blog — six ships Tuesday morning, 130/day pre-war, confirmed this session); Trading Economics (market data — gasoline futures highest since June 2022, 11-week draw, Chinese teapot refiner exposure detail, confirmed this session)
4. THE OVERNIGHT WAR — LEBANON, IRAN’S STEEL BAN, AND A NUMBER THAT NEEDS EXPLAINING
The most significant overnight development in Lebanon is a threshold crossed. For the first time since the ceasefire took effect on April 16, Israeli forces struck Lebanese Army soldiers — wounding two troops in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, according to the Lebanese Army and confirmed by France 24. The Lebanese Army is not Hezbollah. It is the state military of Lebanon, whose government is a party to the ceasefire agreement. Israel simultaneously warned residents of more than a dozen villages to evacuate immediately, citing Hezbollah violations — and announced the discovery and destruction of a large Hezbollah tunnel network in the south. Both operations are being conducted under a ceasefire that Netanyahu has explicitly stated allows Israel to continue operations throughout Lebanon.
The Lebanon casualty picture reflects the cumulative cost of those operations. Lebanon’s Health Ministry confirmed at least 2,521 killed and more than 7,800 wounded since March 2. Sunday was the deadliest single day since the ceasefire took effect on April 16, with 14 killed in Israeli strikes. The Bekaa Valley strikes confirmed Monday were the first in that area since the ceasefire began, extending Israel’s operational footprint to a third geographic zone beyond the south and the Litani buffer area. Netanyahu told Israeli military personnel this week that the ceasefire terms explicitly allow Israel to continue bombing throughout Lebanon: “Our freedom of action to thwart threats — immediate threats and emerging threats — is part of the agreement we made with the United States and also with the Lebanese government.” Hezbollah’s drone and missile operations against Israeli troops have continued throughout, including a drone attack on an IDF artillery position Monday.
The Israel casualty figure requires transparency. ROTWR has been carrying 28 killed based on the Al Jazeera live tracker, last confirmed on Day 44. The independent Institute for National Security Studies — an Israeli think tank based at Tel Aviv University — now counts at least 40 Israelis killed since the start of the Iran war, including 16 military members. The INSS is a credible analytical institution but is not a primary source in the way that CENTCOM or the Lebanese Health Ministry is. The figure of 40 has not yet been confirmed against the Al Jazeera live tracker in the current session. Both figures are presented here with their sourcing — readers should know the discrepancy exists and that ROTWR is tracking it for primary source confirmation.
Iran banned the export of all steel products on April 26, according to a directive from Iran’s customs authorities reported by Fars News Agency — Iran state media — and confirmed by CBS News. The ban covers slab, sheet, and strip products. Steel is a strategically significant material for military production including missiles, drones, and ship construction. Iranian airstrikes targeted the steel industry in the opening weeks of the war. The export ban reflects two likely realities: the damage done to Iran’s steel production capacity during the war’s opening strikes, and a strategic decision to preserve remaining output for domestic military-industrial needs. The US-led coalition struck Iranian defense manufacturing repeatedly during Operation Epic Fury; the steel ban is one measurable downstream consequence.
The diplomatic picture overnight shows no movement. Iran’s proposal — reopen Hormuz first, nuclear file last — remains on the table and rejected by the US as currently structured. No counter-proposal has been issued. No talks are scheduled. The ceasefire, extended indefinitely by Trump in late April, is operationally meaningless in Lebanon and structurally stalled on the Iran front. Flights between Tehran and Moscow resumed Tuesday for the first time since the war began — a small signal of normalizing Iran-Russia relations that adds context to Araghchi’s visit to Putin on Monday and Russia’s continued diplomatic insertion as a co-guarantor of any eventual settlement.
🇺🇸 What American readers need to know: Day 60. The war that American audiences were told was essentially won is still producing daily casualties in Lebanon, an Israeli military expanding its operational zone beyond its own declared buffer, an Iranian steel industry being stripped for domestic war production, and a Strait of Hormuz through which six ships passed yesterday. The gap between the administration’s narrative and the war’s operational reality is documented by the war’s own data. The numbers above are that data.
Sources: CNN live blog (US confirmation — Lebanon Health Ministry 2,521/7,800+ toll, Bekaa strikes, Netanyahu ceasefire quote, Tehran-Moscow flights, confirmed this session); France 24 (France, public broadcaster — Lebanese Army strike, first since ceasefire began, tunnel network, evacuation orders, confirmed this session); CBS News live blog (US confirmation — Iran steel export ban, INSS 40 killed figure, confirmed this session); Reuters via Al-Monitor (wire — Bekaa escalation, ceasefire operational picture, confirmed this session)
WAR DAY 60 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 3,636+ killed (HRANA floor estimate — 1,701 civilians, 1,221 military, 714 unclassified; FROZEN since Day 38/April 7; no updated HRANA report confirmed this session)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: At least 2,521 killed, 7,800+ wounded (Lebanon Health Ministry, April 28 — confirmed CNN live blog this session)
🇮🇱 Israel: At least 28 killed (Al Jazeera live tracker — last confirmed Day 44; 40 per INSS, an Israeli think tank, awaiting confirmation from primary source)
🌍 Gulf states: At least 28 killed in Iran-attributed attacks (Al Jazeera live tracker — last confirmed Day 44; not updated this session)
🇺🇸 US military: 13 deaths confirmed (CENTCOM — unchanged)
🛢️ Brent crude: $114.64/barrel (Trading Economics, confirmed this session — highest since June 2022; eighth consecutive session of gains)
⛽ US gas: $4.123/gallon regular (EIA/FRED, week ending April 27 — pre-surge; Forbes corroborates at $4.11 as of yesterday morning; pump prices have not yet reflected today’s Brent move)
📈 US markets: Not yet open at publication
Sourcing note: Iran civilian casualties sourced to HRANA (US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency), which relies on a network of activists inside Iran and represents a floor estimate. AP is running a separate figure of 3,375 reflecting a different methodology. ROTWR continues to use the HRANA floor estimate per locked methodology. Israel figure: Al Jazeera live tracker last confirmed Day 44 at 28; INSS (Israeli think tank, Tel Aviv University) now counts 40 killed including 16 military — discrepancy flagged, awaiting primary source confirmation. Methodology differs between all sources; figures should not be treated as directly comparable.
WATCH LIST
🔴 May 1 War Powers deadline — tomorrow. The administration has filed no authorization request, no 30-day extension certification, no supplemental appropriations. A sixth War Powers vote is expected in the Senate this week. Watch for any White House written certification to Congress and for whether any Republicans cross over when the deadline is no longer hypothetical.
🔴 Brent at $114.64 — pump price lag. Gas hasn’t caught up yet. Today’s crude price arrives at retail in two to three weeks — mid-May. Watch for EIA weekly stock figures Wednesday and any refinery capacity announcements. The pump price trajectory has no floor while Hormuz is closed.
🟡 Zambia PEPFAR deadline. The April 1 mineral compact deadline has passed without a deal. The administration is considering cutting assistance as soon as May. Watch for any State Department announcement and for Zambian government response to the leaked memo.
🟡 Iran counter-proposal. No US counter has been issued. Brent at $114 is the market’s verdict on the diplomatic stalemate. Watch for any Pakistani or Omani readout and for any signal from the Situation Room before Friday’s War Powers deadline forces a different calculation.
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” — Thomas Jefferson, 1789
Yes, and doesn’t UAE have its own pipeline? Isn’t that part of the timing of withdrawal from OPEC?
Rudy, your posts are superb.
I am so deeply horrified by the ugliness of the blackmail of Zambia. That’s what it is. We’ve put a gun to the head of over a million people: pay up or die.
Yesterday I posted a Substack about the environment of violence created by the words and deeds of Trump and co. I included in it the violence of withholding aid. From what we’ve already done. By 2030, as a direct consequence of US aid cuts, one child is projected to die every 40 seconds .
I am wondering why UAE can't ship oil from Port of Fujairah (outside of the Strait of Hormuz)?